破七之后：强势已现，空间几何

Report Information - Report Title: "破七之后：强势已现，空间几何" - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Research Institute: Huatai Futures Research Institute - Analysts: Cai Shaoli, Zhu Simou [1] Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The logic of RMB's oscillatory strength remains unchanged. The RMB has broken through the 7.00 integer mark, but the appreciation this round is more driven by external factors and trade rhythm. The internal fundamentals have not formed a trend resonance. It is expected to operate in the range of 6.95–7.05 with a slight upward bias in the short term, and the appreciation pace will slow down after breaking 7 [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the overall implied volatility shows an upward trend [4]. Policy Observation - The counter - cyclical factor remains in the negative range but has not been activated. There is a fluctuation in the three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [7]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economy - Interest Rate Cut and Liquidity: There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance was 861.4 billion on December 17 (previous value: 805.8 billion), and the reserve balance of depository institutions in October was 2.94 trillion (- 123.4 billion). The pace of interest rate cuts by non - US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [14]. - Fed Chair Candidates: The core competition is between Waller, Hassett, and Warsh. Market probabilities show Hassett leading, but Trump highly trusts Bessent. If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade of "the Fed losing its independence", which is positive for overall US dollar assets and negative for gold, and the market may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, it may trigger the market's "muscle memory" of "the Fed losing its independence", which is negative for overall US dollar assets and positive for gold, and the market may raise expectations for interest rate cuts next year [17]. - US Economic Data: The US economic data has generally exceeded expectations, but the pace of interest rate cuts remains unchanged. Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the CPI increase in November was lower than expected, which supports subsequent interest rate cuts. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in November increased slightly [19]. - Inflation: The US CPI in November was lower than expected. The contributions of food and core commodities decreased, the contribution of crude oil increased, and the contribution of core services decreased. There is a divergence between CPI and PMI [20]. - Non - farm Payrolls in November: Compared with September, the non - farm payrolls in November continued to weaken, with only the construction industry showing improvement. In the unemployment rate, re - employment and temporary unemployment had negative contributions, indicating a change in the employment environment [22]. - Chinese Economy: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but there is still great pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption has slowed down. Against the background of increasing marginal pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [24]. Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - The supply and demand of foreign exchange are generally balanced. The surplus of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange has fallen to 15.65 billion US dollars, and although the surplus continues, it is gradually weakening at the margin. The scale of settlement and sale of foreign exchange has not significantly increased or decreased, and the marginal guidance of single - month data on the exchange rate has declined. Enterprises' spot - end operations tend to be rational, with the settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts falling to 51.99% and the purchase rate of foreign exchange payments falling to 60.30%. Enterprises maintain a balanced payment and receipt management, and there is no concentrated settlement or sale of foreign exchange. On the forward end, the management is mainly about existing risks. The demand for new forward hedging has cooled down, and the performance shows a divergence of "decrease in settlement and increase in purchase". The net forward settlement of foreign exchange that has not expired continues to rise, and the hedging structure is stable without showing directional bets [31]. Foreign - related Receipts and Payments - The overall surplus has significantly narrowed, but the structure is stable. The surplus of domestic banks' agency foreign - related receipts and payments has declined. Both the current account and the capital and financial account have weakened simultaneously, reflecting a rhythm adjustment rather than a directional change. The surplus foundation of the current account is still solid. The current account surplus has decreased from 74.66 billion to 55.24 billion US dollars, mainly due to the stable export rhythm and the marginal repair of imports. The goods trade surplus is still as high as 72.67 billion US dollars, indicating the resilience of the foreign trade fundamentals. The service trade deficit has expanded to - 6.42 billion US dollars, weakening the support for the surplus. The capital and financial account has a structural outflow, but the pressure has eased. The capital account deficit has expanded to - 38.61 billion US dollars, among which the securities investment deficit has significantly narrowed, and the direct investment deficit has slightly improved. There is no concentrated outflow in a single channel, and cross - border capital flows remain controllable [36]. Overall Viewpoint - The current situation shows that the difference in economic expectations is favorable for the RMB. The US employment and business activities have cooled down simultaneously, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and the wage growth rate falling to 3.5%. In the same period, China's economic growth - stabilizing policies have continued to take effect, and exports and the current account surplus are robust. The Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral. Under the Fed's interest rate - cut cycle, the real return advantage of the US dollar has converged, while China's monetary policy maintains a stable orientation and the interest rate system is stable. The uncertainty of trade policy is neutral. The US trade and industrial policies towards China still have uncertainties, but the adjustment rhythm has slowed down. China's export market continues to diversify, the trade surplus has reached a record high, and the external demand structure is stable [40]. 2026 Scenario Deduction - There are multiple important events and turning points throughout 2026, including the Fed chair candidate situation at the end of 2025, OPEC and FOMC meetings in January, the government work report in February, the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March, the expiration of Powell's term in May, the FOMC meeting on June 18, the El Nino situation in June, the Politburo meeting in July, the FOMC meeting on September 29, the US mid - term elections on November 3, and the postponement of the expiration of Sino - US tariffs on November 10. These events are related to policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, which will have an impact on the economic situation [43].