金信期货观点-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, geopolitical factors bring short - term price rebounds, but the supply surplus pressure in 2026 remains the dominant factor, and significant price surges are unlikely [4] - For PX & PTA, the supply is expected to contract in January, the price trend is strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the early holiday of the terminal in early January [4] - For MEG, the price rebound is limited due to the dual - weak supply and demand and inventory reduction pressure [5] - For BZ & EB, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate widely, and the price center of styrene is expected to rise in the medium - long term [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - US WTI crude oil price is stable above $58 per barrel, with a weekly cumulative increase of over 3%. Geopolitical situations such as US actions in Venezuela and Nigeria and the attack on a Russian refinery are beneficial to the market, but supply surplus in 2026 is the core driving factor [4] PX & PTA - PX domestic load is stable, with high - level operation. There are maintenance plans in January, and the processing fee continues to rise. PTA supply tightens, with strong cost support, but the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [4] MEG - The domestic ethylene glycol (MEG) operating rate decreases, the price rebounds from the bottom. The port inventory decreases but remains high. The import volume is expected to decline, and the price rebound is limited due to dual - weak supply and demand [5][18] BZ & EB - The overseas gasoline cracking spread is weak, the support for pure benzene from overseas oil blending weakens. The pure benzene port inventory accumulates, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Styrene operating rate rebounds, and its price center is expected to rise in the medium - long term [5][27] Polyester and Terminal - The polyester industry's average operating rate is basically stable, with significant inventory reduction in polyester filament. The terminal weaving market is weak, with fewer new orders, and the production load is gradually decreasing [22] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene operating rate slightly decreases, and the styrene operating rate rebounds. The port inventories of both increase. The downstream demand shows certain resilience, and further observation is needed [27]