玉米月报：中下游库存逐步回升，玉米偏弱震荡-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global corn supply - demand situation is generally loose in 2025/26, with increased production in the US and Ukraine and relatively stable production in Brazil and Argentina. In China, there is a significant increase in corn production in 2025/26, but the quality of North China corn is poor, leading to more demand from grain - using enterprises shifting to Northeast corn. Currently, the overall corn selling progress is fast, but due to increased production, there is still sufficient grain left at the grassroots level. On the demand side, the breeding industry is continuously losing money, and the production capacity of the pig and egg industries will decline. Feed demand has short - term resilience but is pessimistic in the future. In the deep - processing sector, starch processing profits are poor, and the operating rate is low, while alcohol mainly digests low - quality corn. Regarding the inventory behavior of the mid - and downstream, the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly month - on - month, and there is insufficient motivation to further increase inventory substantially. The operation should be treated with a view of oscillation [1][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since December, the domestic corn market has declined from a high level, and then the spot market has also adjusted following the futures market. Futures play a leading role in the spot market. The weaker performance of futures than spot has led to a passive strengthening of the basis at the northern ports. After the corn futures reached a high level at the beginning of the month, market fear of high prices increased. Rumors of wheat and imported corn auctions emerged, suppressing the bullish sentiment. Futures fell first, which further increased the enthusiasm of traders to sell and realize profits. Coupled with the fact that high spot prices have indeed inhibited restocking demand, both futures and spot prices declined in a resonant manner [3]. 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 Increase in US Corn Production and Significant Rebound in Ending Stocks - According to the USDA's December supply - demand report, in 2025/26, the US corn harvested area is 36.44 million hectares, the yield per unit is 11.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is 425 million tons. Feed consumption is 155 million tons, food and processing demand is 177 million tons, exports are 81.28 million tons, and the ending stocks are 51.53 million tons, with a stock - to - use ratio of 12.5%, lower than the November estimate of 13.3% but significantly higher than the previous year's 10.1% and also at a relatively high level since 2020/21. The significant increase in production is the key factor driving the balance sheet to become looser, mainly due to a large increase in area and a recovery - type growth in yield. Exports and domestic consumption have also increased correspondingly due to the supply boost. From the current export sales report, US corn export sales have increased by nearly 10 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year, and the overall completion progress is good [5]. 3.2.2 Brazil and Argentina's Production Expected to Remain Stable at a High Level - According to the USDA's December estimate, Brazil's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year but with little overall change. According to the latest estimate of Brazil's domestic institution CONAB, Brazil's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 139 million tons, a decrease of more than 2 million tons compared with the previous year, similar to the change degree estimated by the USDA. In Argentina, according to the USDA estimate, the production in 2025/26 is expected to be 53 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and the ending stocks are 4.18 million tons. Overall, the production of Brazil and Argentina in South America in 2025/26 is generally stable. As of now, the weather in the producing areas has been good, and the possibility of achieving high - yield expectations in the future is high [7]. 3.2.3 Recovery - type Increase in Ukraine's Production but with a Revised - down Growth Rate - According to the USDA estimate, Ukraine's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared with the previous year's 26.8 million tons, with an increase rate of 8%. The increase in production is mainly due to a slight increase in area and the recovery of yield. The final ending stocks are 848,000 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous year, and the stock - to - use ratio is 2.92%, at a low level in recent years. Overall, although Ukraine's production has increased, due to the impact of adverse weather later, the production increase rate is lower than the previous expectation [10]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Increase in New Crop Production and Fast Selling Progress - In terms of new crop production, according to the analysis report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national corn production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 300 million tons, an increase of more than 5 million tons compared with the previous year, mainly due to an increase in yield per unit. In terms of the listing rhythm, due to continuous rainfall during the harvest period in the North China production area, the quality of new corn is poor and the toxin content is high. Grain - using enterprises and grain merchants have a weak enthusiasm for purchasing North China corn, limiting the selling progress. On the other hand, the quality of Northeast corn is good, and there is more procurement from grain merchants in the inland areas, resulting in a fast selling progress of Northeast corn. According to the statistics of myagricultural.com, as of December 25, the selling progress of Northeast corn reached 44%, an increase of 8 percentage points year - on - year; the selling progress of North China corn was 40%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year - on - year; and the national corn selling progress was 45%, an increase of 4 percentage points year - on - year. Due to increased production, there is still sufficient grain left at the grassroots level in China [14]. 3.3.2 Poor Feed Consumption Expectations and Stable Deep - processing Consumption Year - on - Year - According to the calculation data of the Feed Industry Association, the feed output in November 2025 was 28.73 million tons, entering the seasonal decline stage month - on - month but significantly higher than the previous year's 27.1 million tons year - on - year, mainly affected by the expansion of the pig breeding industry's production capacity in 2024. For 2026, since the pig breeding profit has re - entered the loss range, and national policies are focusing on promoting the orderly reduction of production capacity in the pig industry, and the laying - hen breeding industry has also had a very poor year, feed consumption is expected to decline. In deep - processing, according to the sample statistics of myagricultural.com, since 2025/26, the consumption of corn in the national starch industry has decreased year - on - year, mainly because poor processing profits have led to a low operating rate. However, the consumption of corn in the alcohol industry has increased significantly year - on - year, mainly because there is a relatively large proportion of low - quality corn in North China, which is difficult to enter the food processing and feed processing fields and can only be consumed through alcohol processing. From the perspective of the total corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises, the cumulative consumption since this marketing year is similar to that of the previous year [18][19]. 3.3.3 Expected Reduction in the Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn - Since September, the price difference between domestic wheat and corn has been at a relatively high level, giving corn a good cost - performance advantage in the feed field. From the perspective of the corn addition ratio in compound feed statistics of the Feed Industry Association, since September, the corn addition ratio in feed industry production has also continuously rebounded. In terms of import substitution, with the stable growth of China's corn production, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased, and the volume of imported substitute grains has significantly decreased compared with previous years. The impact of imported substitutes is more reflected in a phased and regional manner [25]. 3.3.4 Rebound in Downstream Enterprise Inventory and Limited Motivation to Further Increase Inventory Significantly - In terms of the inventory of north - south ports, the inventory at northern ports has continuously rebounded and has reached a level close to 2 million tons, but it is still slightly lower than the same period in a neutral sense. Later, with the advancement of the new corn gathering at ports in the Northeast, the inventory at northern ports will also increase seasonally. The grain inventory in the Guangdong sales area is currently at a relatively low level compared with the same period, but with the increase in the arrival of imported grains, the inventory will also be supplemented to some extent. In terms of the raw material inventory of grain - using enterprises, the inventory of North China deep - processing enterprises has increased rapidly, while that of Northeast deep - processing enterprises is still low. From the perspective of the inventory - to - use ratio, the inventory - to - use ratio of national deep - processing enterprises rebounded rapidly in December, and the shortage pattern of raw materials for deep - processing enterprises has improved. The raw material inventory days of feed enterprises have also rebounded significantly to a neutral level compared with the same period. Due to the poor overall profit of the breeding sector and the pessimistic feed demand expectation, feed enterprises have little motivation to further replenish inventory significantly [29].