Dongguan Securities·2025-12-26 09:37Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural opportunities arising from the EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products, which are expected to benefit domestic alternatives such as cheese and cream [50]. - The white liquor sector is experiencing a weak recovery in consumption, with expectations of continued pressure on sales in the fourth quarter and first quarter of the following year, but a potential rebound in the second quarter due to low base effects [50][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels ahead of the Spring Festival and the operational goals set by various liquor companies for the upcoming year [51]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and other regional brands such as Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) and Guojiao Liquor (000596) [51]. - The report notes that approximately 87% of stocks in the food and beverage sector recorded positive returns during the review period, with notable performers including Anji Food (+27.96%) and Huanlejia (+20.94%) [15]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From December 12 to December 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 1.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.66 percentage points [11]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the baking sector showing the highest increase of 7.63% [13]. Industry Data Tracking - Liquor Sector: The price of Feitian Moutai increased to 1575 RMB/bottle, while Guojiao 1573 decreased to 840 RMB/bottle [21]. - Condiments Sector: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar decreased, with soybean prices at 4288.90 RMB/ton [24]. - Beer Sector: Aluminum prices increased while glass and corrugated paper prices decreased; barley prices remained stable at 2200.00 RMB/ton [29]. - Dairy Sector: Fresh milk prices rose slightly to 3.03 RMB/kg [37]. - Meat Sector: The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 17.44 RMB/kg, with a year-on-year decline of 22.04% [39]. Important News - The report discusses the preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy measures for EU dairy imports, which is expected to positively impact domestic dairy producers [44][45]. - It also notes a decline in the production of white liquor and beer in November, with white liquor production down 11.3% year-on-year [43]. Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to at least 75% of its net profit for the years 2024-2026, alongside a share buyback plan [52]. - Haitian Flavoring plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% of its net profit for the next three years [48].