铁矿日报：港口库存往下游转移，钢厂补库微量复苏-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the disturbance of macro events gradually fades, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to fundamentals. With a decline in shipments, slow demand recovery, and a slight improvement in the transfer of port inventory to downstream, along with the futures discount under the back structure and positive basis of futures contracts, the futures and spot markets will form a certain resonance in the short - term, and the market will gradually strengthen in a volatile manner [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly during the day, closing at 783 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price with a gain of +0.58%. The trading volume was 291,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 13,000 lots to 581,000 lots, with the settled funds exceeding 10 billion yuan. The disk price strengthened again in the short - term [1] - Spot price: Among the mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder dropped 2 to 791, and Super Special powder dropped 2 to 671. The main swap contract was 104.35 (+0.5) US dollars/ton. Spot prices declined slightly, and swap prices maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 816.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33.1 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 18.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 22 yuan. Iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis, indicating strong support for futures [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with shipments from Australia and Brazil weakening, especially a significant decline in Brazil. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: Hot metal production remained basically stable, with both blast furnace restart and maintenance. As raw material prices weakened, the profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, but the release of restocking demand was still slow [2] - Inventory side: Port inventory increased significantly, with more unloading and warehousing at ports, and the congestion situation improved month - on - month. Steel mill inventory increased to some extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average, and the release of restocking demand was still slow [2] Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: Recently, the combination of "low inflation + weak reality + change of Federal Reserve chairman" in the US is conducive to the Fed's easing. The quality of economic data in January is expected to return to normal levels, providing more guidance for the market. The overseas macro - environment will continue to warm up in 2026. The "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy in the US is conducive to promoting economic prosperity. In December, the European Central Bank announced to keep interest rates unchanged and raised the GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as expected, not a radical tightening, and it raised the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and maintained the forecast for 2026 [3][4] - Domestic: On December 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting arranged for 2026 to carry out urban renewal, stabilize the real estate market, and accelerate the quality improvement and upgrading of the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks is still a highlight, and gas pipelines, drainage and flood prevention projects, etc. are all planned, with a small increase in expected capital investment next year. In addition, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, with the continued weakening of commodity retail being the main drag factor, while service consumption continued to improve. In terms of investment, manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all continued to weaken, while exports performed well and remained an important support [4]