螺纹日报：震荡整理-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current market is in a volatile situation with supply support and weak demand in the off - season. Supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rebound in the past two weeks, and there is an expectation of steel mill复产 in January. Demand decline shows off - season characteristics. Observe whether the winter storage market can start in January. Inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - expectation is loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The recent market has shown continuous volatility after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to continue the volatile and weak consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the rebar main contract on Thursday was 1,132,633 lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 47,415 lots. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3090 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3132 yuan/ton, and closed at 3118 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.42% [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 172 yuan/ton to the spot, which supported the futures price to some extent [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased by 2.71 million tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks, and was 319,100 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 0.39% lower year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.23%, unchanged from last week. The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons, 129,000 tons lower year - on - year. There is an expectation of steel mill复产, which will weaken price support [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials in the country remaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past five years. As of the week of December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower year - on - year. Demand showed regional differences, with construction in the north stagnant due to cold weather and the south having some demand resilience due to rush construction of existing projects. Pay attention to whether winter storage can drive demand in January [2]. Inventory - As of the week of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, declining for 8 consecutive weeks but still 345,100 tons higher year - on - year. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a decrease of 188,100 tons week - on - week, and the destocking slowed down. The steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a slight increase of 5,200 tons. The overall inventory pressure was controllable [3]. Macro - aspect - The central economic conference proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently, keep liquidity abundant, and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aims to stabilize the real - estate market, control new construction, destock, and optimize supply. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry, and macro - increment demand is relatively limited, but the loose cycle provides support [3]. Cost - aspect - The futures of iron ore and coking coal and coke stabilized, enhancing cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory destocking, loose policy expectations, large futures discount providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and stable coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected steel mill复产 in January, seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real - estate data [5].