焦炭日报：短期偏震荡运行-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The coke supply is continuously increasing and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The demand side has low iron - water production and poor steel - mill profits, resulting in overall weak supply and demand for coke. However, the winter - storage restocking demand of coking plants and steel mills is gradually emerging, and the macro - environment has generally improved. Therefore, it is expected that coke will run in a short - term volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of December 26, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly by 1.25% to 92.24 tons, the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.34% to 642.2 tons, and the port coke inventory also increased by nearly 2%. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 14.36 tons week - on - week to 978.64 tons, reaching a 12 - week high with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1] - The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 18 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is - 3 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke is - 64 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke is 35 yuan/ton [1] - The terminal demand for steel is weak, mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%. The daily average pig - iron output increased by 0.03 tons week - on - week to 226.58 tons, ending the previous five - week consecutive decline, and is 1.29 tons less than the same period last year [1] Upstream Coking Coal - Steel and coking enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly by 3.43 tons to 1039.72 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased slightly by 1.73 tons to 806.72 tons, and the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased by 10.1 tons. At the same time, the port's imported coking coal inventory increased by 23.09 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 1.47% to 2647.24 tons, reaching a nearly 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 14% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to regulate crude steel production, prohibit illegal new capacity additions, and promote survival of the fittest. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will intensively regulate "involution - style" competition and firmly curb low - price and low - quality competition [2] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On the futures trading floor, the 05 - contract coke opened at 1735, dropped to a minimum of 1677.5, and closed at 1720, adding 781 lots. The price first decreased and then increased during the day, and it is in a volatile trend on the daily - line level. Attention should be paid to the support at the intraday low and the pressure of the 40 - day moving average [3] - In the spot market, the port spot market is stable. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1460. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is average, and the inventory at the two ports has slightly increased compared with the previous trading day [4]