玻璃日报：短期震荡-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term volatility" [1] Core Viewpoint - The short - term price of glass may maintain a volatile trend, and pay attention to the pressure near the upper Bollinger Band in the short term. Future focus should be on macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The glass main contract opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a volatile signal. The trading volume increased by 615,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,426 lots. The intraday high was 1,066, the low was 1,026, and the closing price was 1,057, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot Market: In the North China market, transactions were flexible with narrow price fluctuations, and some small - plate prices declined. In the Central and East China markets, there were few changes, and enterprises mainly sold at stable prices. In the Northwest market, trading was light, and some processing plants had sporadic holidays, restricting production and sales. In the Southwest market, prices were temporarily stable, and some enterprises planned to raise prices [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1,010, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The national float glass output was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry's average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold - repair, reigniting the expectation of production line cold - repair [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 heavy boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] - Demand: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. Orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, there were few changes in the central and eastern regions, orders in South China increased moderately month - on - month, and there were both increases and decreases in the Southwest region, with the average order days decreasing slightly month - on - month [2] - Profit: As of December 25, the profit from natural - gas - based production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit from petroleum - coke - based production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit from coal - gas - based production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply - side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, which may accelerate the elimination of some enterprises' production capacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition has boosted short - term market sentiment. However, real estate development investment and funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real - estate demand continues to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise order volume put pressure on spot prices. Overall, short - term prices may maintain a volatile trend [4]