热卷日报：震荡整理-20251226

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The hot-rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. The output of hot-rolled coil rebounded this week but is at a relatively low level, and there may still be room for output to rise in the future. The rebound in apparent demand shows the resilience of demand, but the subsequent demand increment is limited. The total inventory continues to decline, but the total amount is still at a high level. With the expectation of macro-loose policy, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom-bust line. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the winter storage market in January and the recovery slope of production capacity. The daily K-line shows a lower shadow positive line, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the position of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 6,522 lots, with a trading volume of 490,404 lots, an increase compared with the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,253 yuan, and the high was 3,288 yuan. It fluctuated within the day and closed at 3,283 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coil in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot is -13 yuan, and the basis is close to parity [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 16,300 tons to 2.9354 million tons compared with the previous week. It decreased by 136,000 tons year-on-year. This week, the output of hot-rolled coil rebounded after a sharp decline last week. Currently, it is near the lowest level of the year and at a low level in the past four years, which enhances price support. The production reduction is mainly due to profit contraction, more steel mill overhauls, some steel mills switching to rebar production, and the seasonal off-season [3]. - Demand side: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 87,600 tons to 3.0704 million tons compared with the previous week. It decreased by 22,900 tons year-on-year. This week, the apparent demand rebounded, and the export rush market appeared. However, the winter storage market in January still needs to be followed up [3]. - Inventory side: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 3.7722 million tons compared with the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 106,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 29,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, and the de - stocking accelerated, indicating that the demand in late December was resilient, which should be due to enterprises rushing to export. However, the total inventory is at a high level in the past four years. In the future, the speed of continued de - stocking of inventory needs to be followed up [3]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Rectifying involution - style competition in depth is listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. - External macro: The core CPI in the United States increased by 2.6% year - on - year in November, the slowest growth rate since the beginning of 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The output on the supply side has decreased significantly. There is an expectation of the start of winter storage demand, an export rush market, policy support ("the 14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have enhanced cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeds expectations, the demand weakens seasonally, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [5].