橡胶年度报告（2026）：供给弹性降低，需求驱动价格空间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the natural rubber futures price is expected to oscillate and bottom out, with a slow rise in the center. The supply growth rate of the global rubber market will slow down, but the increase in raw material prices may stimulate the existing tapping intensity. Emerging production areas such as Côte d'Ivoire may offset part of the production reduction in major producing countries. On the demand side, domestic industrial policies are expected to support the demand for matching tires, but external demand faces challenges [51]. - The overall trend of synthetic rubber is expected to be weaker than that of natural rubber. Under the pressure of falling costs and ample supply, the market may continue the weak pattern [51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the rubber futures market fluctuated widely throughout the year. In early April, it fell sharply due to the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff". At the beginning of the year, tight supply pushed the price to the annual high. As the macro - impact faded, supply and demand became the dominant factors, and the market mainly oscillated due to the lack of prominent contradictions [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Natural Rubber - Raw Material Price: In 2025, the raw material price fluctuated within a range. In the first half of the year, the expected increase in global supply and the US tariff policy led to a decline in the price of rubber latex. In the second half of the year, weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia stabilized the raw material price. In 2026, the supply elasticity of major producing countries is expected to decrease, and abnormal weather and geopolitical conflicts may still affect short - term supply [8]. - Supply and Demand: According to the ANRPC report, in 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and the consumption is expected to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production and consumption [10]. - Import: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative import volume of natural rubber reached 5.8716 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.98%. Côte d'Ivoire has become an important import source. In 2026, the supply elasticity of traditional producing areas is expected to decrease, but emerging areas may make up for part of the shortfall [13]. - Inventory: In 2025, the natural rubber inventory showed a seasonal pattern. By December 19, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, general trade inventory, and social inventory all increased compared with the same period last year. In 2026, the inventory may continue to fluctuate cyclically, and the overall pressure may decrease [21]. 3.2.2 Synthetic Rubber - Supply: In recent years, the production capacity of the private cis - butadiene rubber industry has gradually increased. As of June 2025, the production capacity in China reached 2.072 million tons per year. In 2025, the output from January to November increased by 25.03% year - on - year. In 2026, new production capacity is expected to be released, but the growth rate may decline [27]. - Raw Material: Butadiene, the main raw material of cis - butadiene rubber, had a large - scale production capacity release in 2025, leading to a supply - surplus situation. In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year, and the supply pressure will still exist but slow down [28][29]. - Export: In 2025, China changed from a net importer to a net exporter of cis - butadiene rubber. The export destinations are highly concentrated in Southeast Asia. This trend is expected to continue in 2026 [33]. - Inventory: In 2025, the inventory center of cis - butadiene rubber in sample factories and traders moved up. In 2026, the inventory center may continue to move up slowly under the pattern of "both supply and demand increasing" [36]. 3.2.3 Tires - All - steel Tires: By the end of November 2025, the factory inventory of all - steel tires decreased by 2.39% year - on - year, while the social inventory increased by 6.69% year - on - year. The actual output is restricted by effective demand, and future output growth depends on the recovery of domestic terminal demand [37]. - Semi - steel Tires: Due to large - scale capacity expansion from 2023 to 2024, the inventory of semi - steel tires increased significantly in 2025, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. In 2026, the upward space of capacity utilization rate is limited. The export performance of semi - steel tires is worse than that of all - steel tires, and the EU's anti - dumping investigation will continue to suppress the export volume in 2026 [41][45]. 3.3 EUDR Policy Situation - The EUDR policy has clear implementation time for different types of enterprises, simplifies the process for small and micro operators, and requires the EU Commission to conduct an impact assessment. The direct impact on natural rubber is a significant increase in compliance costs [48]. - The EU Zero - Deforestation Act (EUDR) was originally planned to be implemented in December 2024 but was postponed. In November 2025, the EU Council passed the revision authorization and started the negotiation process with the European Parliament [49]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2026, pay attention to the weather conditions in natural rubber producing areas and the monetary policies of major overseas economies and the degree of global trade frictions, which may change market risk preferences and demand expectations [51].