供需紧平衡，铜价继续维持高位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In 2026, globally, copper will be in a situation of tight supply and demand, with the tightness in copper ore gradually transferring to electrolytic copper. Demand will maintain a high growth rate, and the market will be in a state of tight supply - demand balance throughout the year. The copper price is expected to remain high, ranging from 80,000 to 110,000 yuan per ton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - Overseas, the Fed's December rate - cut has been implemented. Despite the slightly better - than - expected US November non - farm payrolls data, the rising unemployment rate won't change the Fed's loose stance, and the overseas liquidity environment will continue to support risk appetite. Domestically, major meetings have set a clear tone of "stable growth and expanding domestic demand" for 2026, providing support for market sentiment [6]. - On the supply side, the resumption of production at mines such as Indonesia's Grasberg and Chile's El Teniente is slow, new capacity investment is limited, and domestic smelters have a production cut expectation. The growth rate of global electrolytic copper production in 2026 is expected to slow down, and the tightness in copper ore supply is gradually shifting to electrolytic copper supply [6]. - In terms of demand, grid demand is strong, the demand for copper from new - energy vehicles is growing explosively, new - energy vehicles and computing power drive related power supporting facilities as new growth points, home appliance consumption is expected to remain stable, and the impact of real - estate demand is limited [6]. - Regarding inventory, US tariff policies have led to a structural high premium in the COMEX copper market, causing a one - way transfer of global inventory to the US market. US copper inventory is continuously accumulating, while Asian and European markets face a tight spot supply situation, leading to a structural rise in the copper price fluctuation center [6]. 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In 2025, the copper price increased significantly. In Q1, tariff expectations and a falling US dollar index, along with a decline in copper ore processing fees, led to a large - scale transfer of global copper inventory to the COMEX market, with the COMEX copper price leading the rise and the Shanghai copper price reaching a stage high [8][9]. - In Q2, tariff policies caused market panic and a sharp decline in the copper price, but then the price rebounded in a V - shape. After mid - April, as the tariff conflict eased, the copper price gradually strengthened [9]. - In Q3, the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Weak US economic data, the possibility of a recession, and the expectation of a rate cut, along with supply disruptions such as mine shutdowns, led to high - level oscillations [9]. - In Q4, multiple positive factors, including mine production cuts, tariff - induced inventory transfer, and the Fed's rate cut, drove the copper price to a new high [9]. 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspect) 3.3.1 Overseas - The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points, and the federal funds rate dropped to 3.5% - 3.75% after the December meeting. The US November non - farm payrolls data was slightly better than expected, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high, and inflation data showed a further easing of inflation pressure, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's dovish stance in 2026 [13]. - The possible replacement of the Fed chair by the Trump administration may lead to a continuation of loose policies. The weakening of the Fed's independence and the trend of "de - globalization" in the US and "de - dollarization" globally may cause the US dollar index to remain weak, supporting the copper price [13]. - Short - term Sino - US trade issues have significantly eased. After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in October, the two sides reached consensus on multiple issues, and the suspension of some tariffs was extended, enhancing market confidence in the economic growth of both countries [15]. 3.3.2 Domestic - In 2025, domestic economic indicators showed overall stability. From January to November, RMB loans and social financing scale increased, and M2, M1, and other indicators showed certain growth. Industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales also had year - on - year growth, but fixed - asset investment declined [18]. - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, including reducing the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rates. The government issued ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, with part of the funds used for key projects and new policies [18]. - In 2026, the central bank is expected to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the government will implement more active fiscal policies. The policy signals of "stable growth" and "expanding domestic demand" will support market sentiment, although specific policy tools are yet to be implemented [21]. 3.4基本面 (Fundamental Aspect) 3.4.1 Supply - Copper ore: In 2025, global copper ore supply was severely disrupted by various events, leading to a significant reduction in production expectations. The resumption of production at some mines will be slow, and new large - scale projects are limited. The global copper ore supply faces structural challenges, such as the depletion of high - grade resources and long development cycles. The supply gap in 2026 is expected to widen, and it will turn to a loose state in 2027 [25]. - Copper concentrate processing fees: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee (TC/RC) is 0 dollars/ton and 0 cents/pound, indicating an extremely tight supply of copper concentrate [28]. - Electrolytic copper: In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased. However, due to tight raw material supply, poor long - term negotiation conditions in 2026, and industry suggestions to limit production capacity, some smelters may face losses. The CSPT group plans to cut production by more than 10% in 2026, and after considering new capacity, the growth of China's electrolytic copper production in 2026 is expected to be about 3.75% [32]. - Recycled copper: Affected by US tariff policies and the "232 investigation," the cost of importing recycled copper from the US has increased significantly. Global competition for recycled copper raw materials is intensifying, and the implementation of Document No. 770 has also impacted the recycled copper industry. The supply of recycled copper is expected to tighten in 2026 [37]. 3.4.2 Demand - Real estate: From January to November 2025, real - estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined, and housing prices generally decreased. The real - estate market is still in a weak stage, but in 2026, it will mainly focus on stability [41]. - New - energy vehicles: In November 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to November, the production and sales also showed high - speed growth. Although there may be challenges in domestic demand in 2026, such as the reduction of subsidies and the cancellation of purchase tax incentives, the export growth rate may be maintained, and the production of new - energy vehicles will still grow at a relatively high speed [44]. - Power grid: The power grid is the largest domestic copper - consuming scenario, accounting for nearly 46% of terminal copper consumption in 2025. As of October 2025, power grid project investment increased year - on - year, and the growth of power generation installed capacity also drove the demand for copper cables. In the "15th Five - Year Plan," the construction of a new power system will bring strong demand for copper, and it is expected that China's power grid investment will maintain a high growth rate of about 8% in 2026, and the global power grid's demand for copper will grow at about 4% [49]. - Global new installed capacity: As of November 2025, the cumulative power generation installed capacity increased year - on - year. However, due to the pre - consumption of domestic photovoltaic installed capacity, the growth rate of the annual installed capacity is expected to decline. It is predicted that the global new installed capacity may enter a plateau, but the demand from emerging markets in the Middle East and Latin America may maintain high growth [52]. - Home appliances: In 2025, the domestic home - appliance market was affected by factors such as government subsidies and tariff issues. Although the overall demand increased steadily, there was a significant contraction at the end of the year. In 2026, domestic demand will be affected by the continuity of government subsidies, and exports will still be under pressure from tariffs. However, as a major traditional copper - consuming area, it is expected to support the copper price [56]. 3.4.3 Inventory US tariff policies have led to a structural high premium in the COMEX copper market, causing a one - way transfer of global inventory to the US. As of December 25, the COMEX inventory reached a 21 - year high. The global inventory distribution is unbalanced, with the US inventory accumulating and Asian and European markets facing a tight supply situation. The copper price fluctuation center has risen structurally, and the global copper inventory may decline and remain at a low level in 2026 [59].