EC周报：1月运价走势分歧仍存，关注后续船司调价动作-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market remains divided on the freight rate trend in January 2026, with the EC futures market maintaining a volatile trend. The subsequent focus is on the price adjustment rhythm of shipping companies and the time when the high point appears [5][8]. - The demand for shipping is expected to gradually improve from December 2025 to January 2026. The shipping capacity in December decreased, and there was little change in January and February 2026 compared to the previous period. Maersk has announced an empty - sailing plan for the Spring Festival in 2026 [5]. - The second - stage of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has started but is still tortuous. The phased resumption of shipping through the Suez Canal is expected to increase, which may suppress the far - month contracts [5]. - For trading strategies, most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit at high prices, and the remaining positions should be held lightly. The far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [5][61]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Freight Rate Performance: On December 26, 2025, the SCFI European line reported $1690/TEU, a week - on - week increase of 10.24%. On December 22, the SCFIS European line reported 1589.2 points, a week - on - week increase of 5.2% [5][11][18]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: In terms of spot freight rates, most ports of Maersk reported $2600/HC in the second week of 2026, mainly continuing the previous week's prices. Other shipping companies such as OOCL, COSCO, CMA, etc., also have different price adjustments. From the fundamental perspective, the shipping demand from December 2025 to January 2026 is expected to improve. The weekly average shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in December 2025 was 273,700 TEU, and the weekly average shipping capacity in January/February 2026 was 299,600/281,200 TEU. Maersk has announced an empty - sailing plan for the Spring Festival in 2026 and will increase the PSS to $400/800 from January 5 [5]. - Trading Strategy: Most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit at high prices, and the remaining positions should be held lightly. Wait and see for arbitrage. The far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations [5][61]. 3.2 Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis - Market Volatility: The market continued to debate the high point of the freight rate in January 2026 and the future trend this week, with the EC market maintaining a volatile trend. At the beginning of the week, the market was affected by the pre - holiday shipping rush and the news of some shipping companies being fully booked, and the expectation of a price increase in January was fully factored in. Then, as some mainstream shipping companies released their January freight rates, which were generally lower than market expectations, the EC market maintained a volatile trend [8]. - Spot Freight Rates: The latest SCFI European line on December 26 reported $1690/TEU, a week - on - week increase of 10.24%, which reflected the previous price increase expectations of shipping companies. The spot freight rates are still at a high level, and attention should be paid to whether there will be further price increases in the second half of January. On December 22, the SCFIS European line reported 1589.2 points, a week - on - week increase of 5.2%, but it was significantly lower than market expectations, possibly due to the inclusion of some low - priced offline goods in the index [11][14][18]. - Supply - Side Analysis: On December 26, the deployed shipping capacity on the European line (including the Mediterranean) was 526,200 TEU, a slight decrease from the previous week. The shipping capacity in December decreased, and there was little change in January and February 2026 compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' Spring Festival empty - sailing plans and ship allocation [24][29][31]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - China's foreign trade maintained stable growth in November 2025. Despite the continuous pressure of US tariff policies, China showed strong resilience through diversified market development. The total export volume of goods reached $330.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In terms of export categories, electromechanical products led the growth, while labor - intensive products showed a differentiated performance [36]. - In October 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.481 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the growth rate dropped significantly compared to September. The shipping volume from Asia to North America was 1.872 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The shipping volume from Asia to the world was 9.967 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and the global container shipping volume was 16.256 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [43]. - In December 2025, the European economy showed resilience but with significantly weakened growth momentum. The manufacturing industry continued to be weak, while the service industry still maintained expansion. The economic performances of Germany and France deviated in December [48]. - Turnaround and Geopolitical Risks: As of December 26, 2025, the number of container ships diverting on the European and Mediterranean routes decreased slightly. Some shipping companies started trial re - navigation through the Red Sea. The second - stage of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has started but is still tortuous, and the situation remains tense [49][55]. 3.3 Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking - Freight Rate Data: Includes the historical data of the SCFI comprehensive index, SCFI Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Melbourne, Shanghai - South America, Shanghai - Mediterranean, and Shanghai - Southeast Asia routes [65][68]. - Throughput Data: The weekly container throughput data of Chinese ports as of the week ending December 21, 2025 [72].