供强需弱，明年“投资于人”或可期待

Production - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with high-tech industries contributing 29.8% to the overall growth[9] - The service production index recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.2% in November, showing a slight decline from October[21] - The growth rate of traditional manufacturing industries is under pressure, while some technology-intensive manufacturing sectors maintain high growth rates[18] Investment - From January to November, fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, the lowest since July 2020, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Manufacturing investment growth has slowed for eight consecutive months, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%[23] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 16%, with both supply and demand sides under pressure[38] Consumption - In November, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by only 1.3% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 2.93%[11] - The retail growth of building and decoration materials dropped to -17%, the lowest since March 2020, due to high base effects and cautious expectations[57] - Policies to stimulate consumption are expected to be implemented, focusing on enhancing consumer confidence and optimizing related systems[76] Risks - Risks include potential underperformance of policy implementation, external demand fluctuations, and weak recovery in resident consumption[78] - The real estate market faces adjustment risks, which could indirectly impact infrastructure investment and related consumption sectors[78]