农产品日报-20251226

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating of soybeans (domestic), soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs is ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently. The rating system is based on the star - level description where red stars represent a predicted trend of rising, and three stars mean a clearer long/short trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1][10]. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the agricultural products market is affected by various factors such as policies, weather, and market sentiment. Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies, and continuous attention should be paid to fundamental and policy changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans (Domestic) - Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The auction this week shows good trading volume, strong trading prices, and premium transactions. Policy - side transactions support the price, which is stable and strong. Continuous attention to fundamentals and policies is needed [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were closed for the Christmas holiday, and the U.S. soybeans opened at 22:30 Beijing time today. The market is worried about import clearance speed, causing the price to rise. Attention should be paid to U.S. soybean exports and the impact of South American La Nina weather. Recently, soybean meal prices will follow U.S. soybeans to oscillate, waiting for South American weather changes [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean and palm oil are rising with a reduction in positions. The macro - sentiment of commodities is improving, and attention should be paid to price rebounds due to the macro - atmosphere. There are concerns about tightened soybean clearance policies. Palm oil's high - frequency data shows a mitigation of the bearish fundamental atmosphere. After recent declines and the release of negative factors, U.S. soybeans have stabilized and rebounded. The short - term risk of South American crop weather is low, which requires continuous attention [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices are rising as the market expects stricter import inspection and quarantine policies for oilseeds. The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing has only slightly increased compared to the same period last year, and poor exports still suppress its prices. Australian rapeseed imports have not been crushed yet. The continuous inventory decline of domestic rapeseed supports near - month futures prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of improved China - Canada relations and the opening of Australian rapeseed commercial purchases. Overall, economic and trade trends are the biggest variable for rapeseed. In a state of global rapeseed oversupply, the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. Corn - Today, the spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports are stable and strong. The weather affects farmers' reluctance to sell in the Northeast, and downstream enterprises have partially established safety stocks. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises this morning is 314, showing a decline. After the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated, there is no obvious increase in downstream purchases. Future attention should be on the Northeast grain - selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract will oscillate in the short term [7]. Live Pigs - The main live - pig futures contract 03 rose sharply today and closed above the 60 - day moving average. The overall index showed a situation of increased trading volume. After two months of low - level consolidation, beware of the price entering a rebound channel. In the long - term, the industry is still in the process of increasing slaughter due to previous production capacity recovery, and pig prices are expected to remain low. The current price increase is regarded as a rebound [8]. Eggs - The egg futures prices strengthened again during trading. On the spot side, the price in Hebei was raised for the second consecutive day. The real - world fundamentals of the egg - laying hen industry are gradually improving, and the long - term egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline. The market has gradually accepted the change from a pessimistic to an optimistic expectation for eggs, which is likely to form a consensus. In the long - term, a long - position thinking should be adopted, while being vigilant against the risk of a rapid increase in futures prices due to pre - emptive trading by funds [9].