2025年12月宏观经济月报：海外政策分化，国内政策接续-20251226

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance of supply and demand, with inflation showing signs of easing but core components slowing down[12] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with only one rate cut expected in 2026, which is less than market predictions[14] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling a potential rate hike in 2026 due to a weak recovery in the economy and a shift in its inflation tolerance[17] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic consumption and investment are slowing due to high bases, policy rollbacks, and weak expectations, while external demand remains strong, particularly from non-U.S. countries[4] - Exports are expected to face a slowdown in December, but the overall impact is limited; service consumption is anticipated to provide structural support as holidays approach[4] - Fixed asset investment is projected to stabilize gradually, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments expected to pick up, while real estate investment continues to decline[23] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for stable economic growth and quality improvement for 2026, focusing on the integration of monetary and fiscal policies[5] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately loose, with a potential reserve requirement ratio cut ahead of interest rate cuts, influenced by fiscal policy and external factors[41] - Fiscal policy is aimed at maintaining stability, with a focus on local government debt and expanding domestic demand as primary directions[42]