HTSC·2025-12-26 11:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [7] Core Insights - The report anticipates stable growth in hydropower and improvements in cash flow for green energy and environmental companies due to government subsidies and debt reduction policies [1][6] - The performance of thermal power companies is expected to improve in Q4 2025 despite some uncertainty due to impairment losses [2] - Hydropower generation has shown significant year-on-year growth, with expectations for increased profitability for major hydropower companies [3] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing growth in installed capacity, which supports an increase in generation, while the risk of impairment is expected to ease [4] - Natural gas production is on the rise, and cost reductions may boost demand in the coming years [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - In October and November 2025, thermal power generation increased by 7.3% and decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, with coal prices declining by 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal in Q4 2025 is projected to be 750 RMB per ton [2] Hydropower & Nuclear Power - Hydropower generation in October and November 2025 increased by 28.2% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The Three Gorges Dam's outflow increased significantly, and nuclear power generation also showed stable growth [3] Renewable Energy - From January to October 2025, wind and solar power generation increased by 7.6% and 23.2% year-on-year, respectively, with installed capacity growth supporting generation increases [4] - The utilization rates for wind and solar power were 96.4% and 94.8%, respectively, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement [4] Natural Gas - Natural gas production increased by 5.9% and 5.7% year-on-year in October and November 2025, while apparent consumption decreased by 1.3% [5] - The market anticipates a decline in international oil prices and domestic gas prices, which may support demand growth [5] Environmental Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidy repayments and pricing adjustments on the environmental sector's fundamentals [6] - The ongoing debt reduction policies are expected to enhance the financial performance of environmental companies [6]