Pylon Technologies(SH:688063) Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-12-26 11:44Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from domestic large-scale storage, overseas small-scale storage, and the demand for battery swapping in two-wheeled vehicles, leading to accelerated growth in shipment volumes [1]. - The company is positioned as the fourth largest in China's global household storage system shipments in 2024, with a competitive edge in vertical integration across the entire industry chain, global presence, and continuous R&D investment [7]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in both domestic and international commercial storage products and lightweight power battery businesses, driven by global energy transformation and favorable policies in emerging markets [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,299 million CNY - 2024: 2,005 million CNY - 2025E: 2,722 million CNY - 2026E: 5,341 million CNY - 2027E: 9,036 million CNY - The expected year-on-year growth rates are: - 2023: -45.1% - 2024: -39.2% - 2025E: 35.8% - 2026E: 96.2% - 2027E: 69.2% [6]. - The projected net profit for the company is: - 2023: 516 million CNY - 2024: 41 million CNY - 2025E: 90 million CNY - 2026E: 334 million CNY - 2027E: 468 million CNY - The report anticipates a significant recovery in profitability, with net profit growth rates expected to be: - 2024: -92.0% - 2025E: 119.3% - 2026E: 270.9% - 2027E: 40.0% [6]. Industry and Company Situation - The company focuses on overseas household storage, domestic and international commercial storage, and lightweight power battery products, with future growth primarily driven by commercial storage and lightweight battery businesses [7]. - The report notes that the household storage industry is expected to recover due to global energy transformation and emerging market policy benefits, while commercial storage will benefit from global grid upgrades [7]. - The company has established a strong presence in approximately nine countries and regions, focusing on Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, effectively diversifying regional risks [7]. Key Assumptions - Domestic large-scale storage and commercial storage assumptions include shipment volumes of 1.5/2.0/9.0 GWh from 2025 to 2027, with a unit price of 0.4 CNY/Wh and expected gross margins of 9%/10%/10% [7]. - For overseas household storage and commercial storage, the assumptions are 1.5/4.0/5.0 GWh shipments with unit prices of 1.1/0.8/0.73 CNY/Wh and gross margins of 30%/29%/28% [7]. - Lightweight power battery assumptions include shipments of 1.0/3.5/4.8 GWh with a unit price of 0.4 CNY/Wh, with expected gross margins improving due to scale effects [7].