伊朗装置扰动下，反内卷风波再起：甲醇日报-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is affected by factors such as inventory changes, import pressure, and macro - policies. There is a potential for market sentiment to be boosted by the anti - involution signal, and attention can be paid to the low - valuation repair idea [1][2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 24, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1412,500 tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, while that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The significant inventory accumulation in ports this week was mainly in Jiangsu. The import pressure was relieved to some extent due to the reduced operating rate in Iran, but the estimated imports from December 2025 to January 2026 are between 1.4 and 1.6 million tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In 2025, the industrial economy was stable with progress, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was expected to increase by 5.9% year - on - year. For the "new three" industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key is to standardize the order and innovate. For raw material industries such as steel and petrochemicals, the key is to balance supply and demand and optimize the structure [2][3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market showed an intraday narrow - range oscillation. The daily K - line had a long lower shadow, and the pressure of the 40 - day moving average at the daily level was not effectively broken. There is a possibility of market sentiment being boosted by the anti - involution signal, and attention can be paid to the low - valuation repair idea, while also focusing on the previous low support [4]