沥青日报：震荡运行-20251226

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3% week - on - week, 5.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to be produced at 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, some refineries in Shandong have plans to switch to producing residual oil, and Zhongyou Gaofu plans to stop production, so asphalt supply will decline [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 4 percentage points to 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. The northern road construction is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, but the winter storage demand in the north continues to be released. The overall demand in the south is average [1] - Inventory: As of the week of December 26, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained near the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Price: This week, the asphalt price in Shandong remained stable, and the basis was at a relatively low - to - neutral level [1][3] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 0.03% to 2,995 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,987 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,020 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 23,893 to 157,219 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract remained at - 75 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3% week - on - week, 5.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was the same as that from January to September 2025 but still negative. From January to November 2025, the actual cumulative completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, a slight decline from - 4.3% from January to October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, a further decline from - 0.1% from January to October 2025 [4] - Downstream operating rate: As of the week of December 26, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 4 percentage points to 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing stock: From January to November 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with the same growth rate as from January to October [4] - Inventory: As of the week of December 26, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 13.6% compared with the week of December 19, near the lowest level in recent years [4]