沪铜日报：震荡上行-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market showed an upward trend with a nearly 4% intraday increase. The news of zero long - term pricing for mine - end processing fees boosted market sentiment, leading to consecutive days of rising copper prices. Attention should be paid to the psychological resistance level of 100,000 yuan [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, rising nearly 4% intraday. In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons (11.76%). SMM predicts that the production in December will increase by 65,700 tons (5.96%) month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. The profit of copper products was squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, with capacity utilization declining. Copper tube enterprises were constrained by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil remained highly prosperous due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new energy vehicles. The inventory of cathode copper at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to accumulate, indicating a decline in downstream purchasing power. The National Development and Reform Commission's statement on traditional industries also stimulated the market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, rising nearly 4% intraday. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 360 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 200 yuan/ton. On December 25, 2025, the LME official price was $12,218/ton, and the spot premium was + $35/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 58,600 tons, a decrease of 436 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 96,500 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 479,500 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].