每日核心期货品种分析-20251226

Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and others 1. Market Performance Summary Commodity Futures - As of the close on October 16, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Platinum rose over 9%, lithium carbonate over 8%, Shanghai silver over 6%, and alumina over 5%. International copper, Shanghai copper, and p-xylene (PX) rose over 3%, while PTA and styrene rose nearly 3%. On the downside, palladium fell over 2%, and polysilicon, coking coal, and coke fell over 1%. [6] Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.48%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.51%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 0.80%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 0.57%. [7] Treasury Bond Futures - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.01%, 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) fell 0.01%, 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) rose 0.06%, and 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) rose 0.42%. [7] Fund Flows - As of 15:21 on December 26, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 5.103 billion yuan, CSI 1000 2603 had an inflow of 4.688 billion yuan, and SSE 2603 had an inflow of 3.916 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Shanghai silver 2602 had an outflow of 854 million yuan, polysilicon 2605 had an outflow of 662 million yuan, and rebar 2605 had an outflow of 227 million yuan. [7] 2. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - Price Movement: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, rising nearly 4% on the day. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees boosted market sentiment. [9] - Supply: In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05% MoM, 9.75% YoY). From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons (11.76% YoY). SMM expects December production to increase by 65,700 tons (5.96% MoM, 6.69% YoY). [9] - Demand: Copper product profits were squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip was weak. Copper tube enterprises were constrained by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil remained highly prosperous due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles. [9] - Inventory: The inventory of cathode copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to accumulate, indicating a decline in downstream purchasing power. [9] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: Lithium carbonate opened and closed higher, rising over 8% on the day. [11] - Supply: This week, the capacity utilization rate was 83.52%, significantly higher year - on - year. In November, the output was 93,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,596 tons, and the predicted output for next month is about 98,450 tons. [11] - Demand: Although the growth of downstream energy - storage batteries slowed down, it still maintained growth, and there was an expectation of price increase for lithium iron phosphate, supporting the price of lithium carbonate. However, the terminal peak season is coming to an end, and the purchase tax will be halved from next year, which may lead to pre - demand this month. [11] - Inventory: As of December 18, the inventory of smelters decreased by 1,071 physical tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 1,253 physical tons. The total inventory decreased by 1,044 physical tons. [11] Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ 8 additional voluntary - production - cut countries reiterated the suspension of production increase in Q1 2026. US crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. [12] - Demand: The peak season of crude oil demand ended. EIA data showed that the decline in US crude oil inventory was slightly lower than expected, while the increase in refined - oil inventory exceeded expectations, and the overall oil inventory increased. [12] - Geopolitical Factors: Tensions between the US and Venezuela escalated, and the EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months. There are concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues, but the market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. [12][14] Asphalt - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%, and the expected production in January 2026 is 2 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% MoM and 12.1% YoY. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residue or stop production next week. [15] - Demand: Downstream operating rates mostly declined, affected by funds and weather. Southern demand was average, and low - price goods in the South had good sales. Northern winter - storage demand continued to be released. [15] - Price Outlook: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela. [15] PP - Supply: As of December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%. The PP enterprise operating rate decreased to about 81.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring decreased to about 26.5%. New capacity was put into operation, and there were more maintenance devices recently. [17] - Demand: Downstream entered the end of the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the market lacked large - scale centralized purchases. [17] - Price Outlook: The upward space of PP is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow. [17] Plastic - Supply: On December 26, the plastic operating rate remained at about 87.5%. New capacity was put into operation in October and November, and the operating rate increased slightly. [18] - Demand: The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83%. The agricultural film season ended, orders continued to decline, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. [18] - Price Outlook: The upward space of plastic is limited in the near future, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow. [19] PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. New capacity was put into trial production. [20] - Demand: The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and export sales increased slightly but faced price and demand limitations in the Indian market. [20] - Inventory: Social inventory increased slightly and remained high. [20] - Price Outlook: PVC is expected to fluctuate. [20] Coking Coal - Supply: Near the end of the year, some mines planned to reduce production, but imported coal increased, and port and total inventories increased. [21][22] - Demand: Downstream demand was weak, and steel mills and coking enterprises had less inventory replenishment. [22] - Price Outlook: The market was in a low - level shock. [22] Urea - Supply: The current daily output is 190,000 tons. In January, there are plans for some gas - based devices in the southwest to stop production, but also many devices to resume production. [23] - Demand: The operating load of compound fertilizer factories continued to decline, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions in North China. After the environmental protection restrictions are lifted, the operating rate may recover. [23] - Inventory: The inventory reduction increased, mainly due to partial production cuts of upstream and downstream devices. [23] - Price Outlook: Urea is expected to fluctuate narrowly, mainly determined by the game between downstream inventory replenishment and daily output. [23]