尿素日报：多空博弈-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market is in a situation of long - short game, with the futures opening high and closing down. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly, mainly determined by downstream stocking and daily production levels. There is no new export policy, so there is no driving force for upward rebound [1]. - After the previous pending orders are digested, urea factories are expected to reduce prices to attract orders as they fail to stimulate downstream fertilizer - stocking enthusiasm [1][5]. - The compound fertilizer factory's operating load continued to decline this period, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions in North China. After the environmental protection restrictions are lifted, the operation may pick up, and the raw material procurement end has resilience. The winter - storage market is expected to operate stably [1]. - The inventory reduction amplitude increased this period. The current inventory is 45.61 tons lower than the same period last year, mainly due to partial production cuts in both upstream and downstream devices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures of the urea main 2605 contract opened at 1737 yuan/ton, opened high and went high, and closed down. It finally closed at 1735 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06%. The trading volume was 193,654 lots (- 2,733 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long position decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,078 lots [2]. - On December 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. - The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei urea factories is mostly between 1,640 - 1,710 yuan/ton. The prices of Henan factories are at the lower end, and a few Shandong factories' quotes are at the higher end [1][5]. Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was - 25 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [8]. - On December 26, 2025, the national daily urea production was 198,600 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 81.84% [11].