Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the plastic market showed a pattern of oscillating upward, but the overall supply - demand situation remained unchanged, and the recent upward space of plastic is expected to be limited. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 87.5%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points week - on - week to 41.83%. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories decreasing. Packaging film orders also slightly decreased. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical de - stocking accelerated, but the petrochemical inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. With an oversupply of crude oil and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently. With the slowdown of terminal construction and reduced demand in the north, downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Some industries have entered the off - season, and traders are cautious about the future market and are actively reducing prices to sell goods [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract oscillated upward with reduced positions, with a minimum price of 6323 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6476 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6465 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 15,696 lots to 526,703 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 87.5%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points week - on - week to 41.83%. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories decreasing. Packaging film orders also slightly decreased, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 50,000 tons week - on - week to 560,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical de - stocking accelerated, but the petrochemical inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4].
震荡上行：塑料日报-20251226
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-26 12:34