PP日报：震荡运行-20251226

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to have limited upside potential as its supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, downstream order cycles are shortening, and some PP spot prices are weak. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow due to new PP production capacity coming online and the gradual end of the agricultural film peak season [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week-on-week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic braiding, the main downstream of PP拉丝, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week-on-week, and plastic braiding orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 26, new maintenance units such as Hainan Refining & Chemical JPP were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 81.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard PP拉丝 dropped to around 26.5% [1][4] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory clearance accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, due to the oversupply of crude oil and the escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid-October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders for plastic braiding continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PP2605 contract fluctuated with a decrease in positions, reaching a minimum price of 6,200 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,308 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 6,292 yuan/ton, below the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.24%. The position volume decreased by 5,302 lots to 530,699 lots [2] - PP spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. The price of PP拉丝 was reported at 5,920 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 26, new maintenance units such as Hainan Refining & Chemical JPP were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 81.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard PP拉丝 dropped to around 26.5% [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week-on-week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic braiding, the main downstream of PP拉丝, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week-on-week, and plastic braiding orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Friday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 50,000 tons week-on-week to 560,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory clearance accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week-on-week at $740 per ton [6]