南华期货棉花棉纱周报：供给预期持续发酵，棉价加速上行-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand outlook for domestic cotton in the new year is tight. With the high - yield of Xinjiang cotton this year, the overall supply increase is narrowing due to last year's low inventory and expected low imports. Meanwhile, consumption is supported by expanding spinning capacity, high - load operation of Xinjiang yarn mills, and improved export prospects. Also, expectations of a reduction in next year's cotton planting area in Xinjiang are strengthening, leading to a continuous and accelerating upward shift in cotton prices [1]. - In the short term, there is a risk of cotton price correction. The slowdown in grey fabric sales is affecting the yarn market, squeezing spinning profits and slightly reducing the operating rate. The increasing price difference between domestic and foreign cotton may boost demand for imported yarn, and the uncertainty of the new - season target price subsidy policy also adds to the risk. However, the overall downstream inventory pressure is not large, so the correction range may be limited [7]. - In the long term, the supply - demand of domestic cotton in the new year may remain tight. The rigid consumption of cotton has increased due to the expansion of downstream textile production capacity. Although domestic cotton production has increased significantly, imports are still needed to fill the gap. The probability of further increasing cotton import quotas is low [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - As of December 25, 2025, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume reached 6.0641 million tons, and the average daily notarized inspection volume has dropped to about 55,000 tons. Domestic cotton commercial inventory has significantly increased, but the overall supply increase in the new year is narrowing. The spot price is firm [1]. - Downstream, the expansion of domestic spinning capacity and high - load operation of Xinjiang yarn mills have increased the rigid consumption of cotton. Domestic demand is growing moderately with policy support, and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is conducive to the recovery of textile and clothing exports [1]. - This year is the last year of the three - year target price subsidy policy. Market expectations of policy adjustment next year are strong due to food supply policies and water resource issues in Xinjiang. A meeting was held to formulate a plan to reduce cotton planting area, further strengthening the expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang cotton area next year [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price range: CF2605 is expected to trade between 13,700 - 14,800. - Strategy: Long - term long positions can be laid out for CF2605 on dips [17]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for cotton in the near future: 13,700 - 14,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0817 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1968 [17]. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% at 14,700 - 14,800. They can also sell call options (CF2605C14800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 50% at 350 - 400 [17]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% at 13,700 - 13,800. They can also sell put options (CF2605P13800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 75% at 300 - 350 [17]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14,565, up 520 (3.7%); Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 14,535, up 520 (3.71%); Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 14,720, up 545 (3.84%) [18]. - Spot data: CC Index 3128B was at 15,317, up 172 (1.14%); CC Index 2227B was at 13,583, up 275 (2.07%); CC Index 2129B was at 15,559, up 170 (1.1%) [18]. - Spread data: CF1 - 5 spread was 30 (unchanged); CF5 - 9 spread was - 185, down 25; CF9 - 1 spread was 155, up 25 [18]. - Import price: FC Index M was at 12,898, up 129 (1.01%); FCY Index C32s was at 21,173, up 21 (0.1%) [18]. - Yarn data: Futures price was 20,585, up 535 (2.67%); spot price was 21,140, up 210 (1%) [18]. Chapter 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: As of December 18, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.9% (unchanged year - on - year and compared with the four - year average), the delivery rate was 99.3% (up 0.6 percentage points year - on - year and 1.2 percentage points compared with the four - year average), the processing rate was 88.0% (up 2.0 percentage points year - on - year and 7.9 percentage points compared with the four - year average), and the sales rate was 47.3% (up 25.0 percentage points year - on - year and 28.5 percentage points compared with the four - year average). In November, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles in China were 154.2 billion yuan, up 4.84% month - on - month and 4.19% year - on - year. In November 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 646,400 tons, up 6.32% month - on - month and 9.84% year - on - year; the export value was $5.274 billion, up 12.74% month - on - month and down 10.67% year - on - year; the export unit price was $8.16/kg, up 6.11% month - on - month and down 18.64% year - on - year [19]. - Negative information: In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, down 5.12% year - on - year and up 7.22% month - on - month. Among them, textile exports were $12.276 billion, up 1.03% year - on - year and 9.05% month - on - month; clothing exports were $11.594 billion, down 10.86% year - on - year and up 5.36% month - on - month. As of December 11, 2025, the cumulative net signed export volume of US cotton for the 25/26 season was 1.445 million tons, down 14.40% year - on - year, reaching 54.39% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 605,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 41.88% [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch Keep an eye on the subsequent export situation of US cotton as the current US cotton industry data is lagging [22]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral trend and fund movement: Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise this week with an enlarged increase. Funds actively entered the market, and market activity increased. The position of the main contract continuously increased, with bulls in the dominant position. The market's consensus on a bullish outlook was strong. After the accelerated upward movement of cotton prices on Friday, short - position holdings increased, and the long - short ratio weakened slightly, so short - term correction should be guarded against [26]. - Month - spread structure: Currently, Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 shows a slight back structure supported by industrial - end delivery, while contracts 05 and later maintain a contango structure. The far - month contracts maintain the expectation of tight supply - demand at the end of the year and show a strong trend [29]. - Basis structure: This week, the low - end of the cotton basis remained stable, and the high - end slightly decreased. The pick - up price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 14,960 yuan/ton for grade 3128B and 15,200 yuan/ton for grade 2129B. The sales basis of machine - picked cotton in Shihezi, Xinjiang, with a impurity content of less than 2.7% for the 2605 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 920 - 1030 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 15,080 - 15,250 yuan/ton [32]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - With policy support and technological innovation, Xinjiang yarn mills have a significant cost advantage over those in the inland, maintaining a certain profit. Inland mills were basically in a slight loss in the third quarter. From September, domestic cotton prices declined under the hedging pressure of ginning mills and the supply pressure of new cotton, while yarn spot prices were relatively stable, restoring domestic yarn mills' profits. In December, domestic cotton prices rebounded, squeezing yarn mills' profits again. This week, as cotton prices further increased and yarn prices slightly increased, yarn mills' profits weakened slightly compared with last week [34][35]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, the price trends of domestic and foreign cotton are relatively independent. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is low, resulting in a low level of cotton imports. In November 2025, China's cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons month - on - month and 10,000 tons year - on - year. The cumulative cotton import volume in the 25/26 season was 310,000 tons, down 30,000 tons year - on - year. This week, domestic cotton prices further increased, and foreign cotton prices stabilized and rebounded, slightly expanding the domestic cotton import profit [37]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - year Xinjiang cotton harvest is basically completed, and the output forecast has been slightly revised upwards. In terms of imports, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued an additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale duty quota, and together with the 894,000 - ton 1% tariff quota for 2026, the new - year cotton import volume is tentatively estimated at 1.1 million tons. The probability of further increasing the sliding - scale duty quota is low. Downstream, domestic demand may maintain a moderate recovery, and the export market is expected to support domestic cotton consumption due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations [42]. - The supply - demand balance sheet shows that in the 25/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 7.6 million tons, imports 1.1 million tons, consumption 8.6 million tons, and the ending inventory 6.26 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 72.79% [43].