沥青周度报告-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a wide - range oscillation. The international crude oil price rebounded due to the tense US - Venezuela relations, strengthening cost support and causing concerns about supply tightening at the raw material end, which supported the asphalt market. However, the weak fundamental situation of asphalt restricted the rebound height as the开工 rate and weekly output of domestic asphalt sample enterprises increased, and both factory and social inventories rose, indicating great pressure on downstream demand. In the future, with the expectation of supply surplus, there is significant pressure for continuous strengthening of crude oil. Although the tense US - Venezuela relations may cause disturbances, considering the substitution of domestic raw material sources, the actual impact may be limited, mainly reflected as a bullish sentiment, and the upward driving force is weak. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate widely [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: The US has increased efforts to seize Venezuelan oil tankers; the negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan continues; the EIA data release is postponed to next week [7][8]. - Key Data: As of December 24, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's开工率 was 31.3%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 55.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6 tons; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 59.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons; the social inventory was 74.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 tons [8]. - Main Views: The asphalt market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure near 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [8][9]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish Factors: Disturbances at the raw material end; the implementation of winter storage policies provides a floor price support for the market [12]. - Bearish Factors: Weakening demand; a month - on - month increase in supply [12]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - Initial Jobless Claims: On December 24, the US Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 20 dropped to 214,000, lower than the expected and previous value of 224,000, indicating no obvious pressure in the labor market [13]. - Interest Rate Cut Expectations: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 15.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 84.5%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.2%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 51.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 6% [13]. - Trump's Statement: Trump hopes that the Fed chairman he nominates will cut interest rates when the economy is good [13]. - US - Ukraine and US - Russia Meetings: The US - Ukraine meeting in Miami from December 19 - 21 focused on a "20 - point peace plan" draft, and Zelensky confirmed the completion of the initial draft. The US - Russia meeting in Miami from December 20 - 21 was considered "productive and constructive". The market expects geopolitical risks to ease, and there are concerns that Russian oil inflow after a cease - fire agreement may exacerbate supply surplus and suppress oil prices [14]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 55.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6 tons, with a decrease in refineries and increases in Sinopec, CNPC, and local refineries. As of December 24, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's开工率 was 31.3%, up 3.7 percentage points, mainly due to raw material disturbances, but it is expected to decline as the downstream is in the off - season. Supply is expected to remain at a low level for the year [16][24]. - Demand: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 40.4 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons from the previous statistical period, showing a phased rebound due to winter storage demand and refinery restarts, but still restricted by weak northern demand and high inventory. As of December 26, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 7.1%, down 0.56 percentage points from last week, and it is expected to continue to decline seasonally [25][28]. - Inventory: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's factory inventory was 59.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons, with increases in East and South China and decreases in Shandong and Northwest China. The social inventory was 74.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 tons, ending the destocking trend since August, indicating weakening downstream demand [34][42]. - Spread: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 399 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. As of December 25, the domestic asphalt basis was 95 yuan/ton. As of December 24, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 51.3. Due to strong oil prices, the cracking spread decreased, and the falling spot price led to a weaker basis, indicating pressure in the spot market [51]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The asphalt market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation. Geopolitical tensions and winter storage policies provide some support, but the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Supply pressure has increased, and inventories have risen. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure near 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [53].