Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-26 13:30Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market's turnaround depends on significant supply-side clearance and supply-demand rebalancing [4]. - Although there may be a phased production cut in domestic alumina at the beginning of 2026, the supply may increase again due to production elasticity and new projects. The mid - term strategy is to find selling points during price rebounds [5]. - After the current price rebound, attention should be paid to the pressure of increased spot warrant registration [5]. 3. Summary by Related Sections Alumina Market Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission's news led to the limit - up of AO futures. The continuous decline of AO was due to supply - side over - supply and inventory pressure, while the long - term accumulation of short positions may cause price rebounds. The lower the price, the more intense the capital game and the greater the price volatility [4]. - Considering the cash - cost loss at the 2400 level on the futures and the completion of long - term contract negotiations, alumina manufacturers may gradually decide to cut production or conduct maintenance in January - February. However, production may resume once losses are repaired, and new projects in 2026 will add to the supply [5]. Options Analysis - 场内期权 (Exchange - Traded Options): Alumina options' trading volume and implied volatility increased with the futures' rise. The mid - term price movement is limited. One can consider selling out - of - the - money put options at the cost line and out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level. If the price continues to rise in the short term, one can buy at - the - money call options for risk hedging [7]. - 场外期权 (Over - the - Counter Options): For producers with large inventories, it is recommended to first arrange some short - term, relatively wide - range Phoenix accumulator put options to optimize inventory costs by taking advantage of volatility and price increases [9].