2025年第四季度货币政策委员会例会学习：新旧动能转化下货币政策的调整变化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fourth - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee basically follows the tone set by the Central Economic Work Conference for subsequent work. It is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The domestic economy has prominent contradictions of strong supply and weak demand [2]. - In an economic environment with revised expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. The economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift [6]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalog World Economic Situation and Domestic Economic Operation - The world economic growth momentum is insufficient, and trade barriers and the lack of new economic growth drivers have increased the uncertainty of the external environment. The domestic economic operation is generally stable, with prominent contradictions of strong supply and weak demand. Expanding domestic demand remains one of the main tasks for the next stage [2]. Attitude towards Policy Tools - The central bank does not show a strong willingness to use reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the net interest margin of Chinese commercial banks was 1.42%, at a historical low. Implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may further increase the bank interest margin pressure [2]. Price Outlook - Price recovery should be one of the main themes in 2026. The fourth - quarter regular meeting's statement on prices has changed from "promoting stable economic growth and keeping prices at a reasonable level" in the third quarter to "promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery" [3]. Credit Delivery - The central bank's attitude towards credit delivery may have changed. The content of "guiding financial institutions to increase the intensity of monetary and credit delivery" was removed from the fourth - quarter regular meeting, indicating a shift from increasing the intensity of loan delivery to high - quality delivery [3]. Real Estate Support - The fourth - quarter regular meeting did not mention financial support measures for the real estate industry. On the one hand, the task of ensuring the completion of housing projects has been fully completed, and the financial policy measures to support the real estate industry have taken effect. On the other hand, with the continuous transformation of new and old growth drivers, the support for the old growth driver represented by real estate in financial policies will weaken [4].