南华期货煤焦产业周报：关注下月矿山复产节奏-20251226

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction lies in the current situation where both Steel Union and Fenwei-caliber mines have reduced production and accumulated inventory. Downstream coke enterprises only maintain rigid demand procurement, and large-scale winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The coking coal inventory structure continues to deteriorate. The import pressure may ease in January, but the price trend depends on the resumption rhythm of domestic mines and the production increase elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. - The price ranges are predicted as follows: JM2605 for coking coal is expected to trade between 1040 - 1150, and J2605 for coke between 1650 - 1760. The trend is expected to be a volatile consolidation [10][12]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion - Core Contradiction: This week, mines reduced production and accumulated inventory, downstream coke enterprises only met rigid demand, and winter storage has not begun. The coking coal inventory structure worsened. Import pressure may ease in January. The price trend depends on the resumption rhythm of domestic mines and the production increase elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. - Market Positioning: The price ranges are JM2605 (1040 - 1150) for coking coal and J2605 (1650 - 1760) for coke. The current volatility and historical percentile of volatility are also provided [10]. - Basic Data Overview: Data on coking coal and coke supply, inventory, and price differences are presented, showing a decrease in coking coal production and an increase in inventory [10][13]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events - This Week's Important Information: There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include environmental protection policies, housing policy adjustments, and infrastructure construction plans. Negative factors are the third - round price cut of coke and the high inventory at the port due to high - volume customs clearance of Mongolian coal [21][23]. - Next Week's Attention Events: Attention should be paid to the US initial jobless claims, the Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes, and China's official manufacturing PMI [24][25]. 3. Disk Interpretation - Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation: Technically, the coking coal main contract rebounded. The 05 contract for coking coal is expected to trade between 1040 - 1150, and for coke between 1650 - 1760. The 1 - 5 positive spread of coking coal strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread of coke oscillated at a low level. The basis of coking coal is neutral, and for coke, if the disk continues to rebound and is at a premium to the spot, industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [26][30][33]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis - Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking: This week, the theoretical profit of coking coal mines shrank, the immediate coking profit was under pressure, and the profitability of downstream steel mills improved [38]. - Import and Export Profit Tracking: At the end of the year, Mongolian coal customs clearance increased. The long - term contract trade profit first rose and then fell. The overseas demand for coking coal is strong, and the theoretical import profit has expanded [41][46]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Deduction - Coking Coal Supply - side Deduction: Considering the "good start" of mines in January, the coking coal supply is expected to increase. The weekly average import volume may drop to about 2.5 million tons. The theoretical iron - water balance point in January is expected to be 241 - 242 tons per day [60]. - Coke Supply - side Deduction: The fourth - round price cut of coke is likely to be implemented. The coke production is expected to be about 7.66 million tons per week in January, and the average weekly export is expected to be 150,000 tons. The theoretical iron - water balance point is 231 - 232 tons per day [64]. - Demand - side Deduction: Iron - water production is expected to stabilize in the short term, and the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve marginally. The average daily iron - water production in January is expected to be 2.3 - 2.31 million tons per day [68]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction: Tables show the weekly balance sheets of coking coal and coke, including production, net import, total supply, theoretical iron - water equivalent, actual iron - water, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual iron - water [70].