基础化工行业快报：供需预期改善，聚酯链景气上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [6] Core Views - The polyester chain is experiencing an upward trend in demand and supply expectations, with significant price increases for PX and PTA, reaching recent three-month highs [1] - The PX industry is expected to maintain a tight supply situation due to limited new capacity additions and high domestic capacity utilization, with no new capacity expected in the first three quarters of 2026 [2] - The PTA industry is entering a production vacuum period in 2026, with no new capacity expected, and some companies are proactively reducing production, indicating a positive shift in supply-demand dynamics [3] - The polyester filament industry is demonstrating effective self-regulation, with major manufacturers initiating a new round of coordinated production cuts, leading to significant price increases [4] Summary by Sections PX Industry - No new capacity is expected in the first three quarters of 2026, with new capacity concentrated in the fourth quarter [2] - Domestic PX capacity utilization is nearing 90%, limiting production increases [2] - Overseas market dynamics may further tighten PX supply [2] PTA Industry - The PTA industry has officially ended its rapid expansion phase and is entering a production vacuum in 2026 [3] - Some companies are reducing or halting production, which is a positive signal for the industry [3] - Demand from downstream products is expected to drive PTA demand, with potential for increased exports [3] Polyester Filament Industry - The industry has established a mature self-regulation mechanism, with major companies collaborating on production cuts [4] - Prices for POY, FDY, and DTY have significantly increased due to these measures [4] - Future demand is expected to improve due to domestic consumption policies and external factors such as interest rate changes in the U.S. [4] - Recommended stocks include Tongkun Co., New Fengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, and others [4]