A股 2026 年度投资策略：水到渠成，万舸争腾

Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in 2026, with signs of a profit bottom emerging and ample liquidity gradually reflecting in the performance of listed companies [4][9] - Valuation metrics indicate that the price-to-earnings ratio of stocks relative to bonds is near historical averages, with a low interest rate environment providing upward valuation momentum [9][10] - The Chinese stock market has significant room for improvement in its securitization rate, suggesting potential for further growth [9][10] Industry Allocation Outlook - The report emphasizes a focus on technology, domestic circulation, strategic security, and opening up to the outside world as key investment directions [4][10] - The technology sector is highlighted as a primary area of interest, particularly in AI applications and robotics, which are expected to drive market performance [7][10] - The cyclical recovery is anticipated, with attention on sectors such as high-tech manufacturing, new consumption patterns, and resource scarcity [10] 2025 Market Review - The market has shown a steady upward trend, characterized by a slow bull market, with technology and metals leading the gains [8][23] - Key themes included AI-driven growth, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant performance from small-cap and resource stocks [23][24] - The overall market performance has been robust, with major indices achieving over 15% gains, particularly in the ChiNext and Northbound indices [23][28] Profit and Valuation Trends - As of Q3 2025, the overall revenue growth for A-shares has turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, and the ChiNext leading with a 15.74% increase [36][40] - Profit growth has also shown significant improvement, with A-shares experiencing an 11.45% year-on-year increase in profits, and the ChiNext achieving a remarkable 32.90% growth [36][40] - There is a structural divergence in profitability, with high valuations correlating with high growth in sectors like technology, while domestic demand sectors lag behind [42][45] Global Economic Context - The report anticipates a favorable global liquidity environment due to ongoing monetary and credit easing, particularly in the U.S., which is expected to positively impact Chinese exports [9][10] - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a mild recovery in 2026, with inflation trends remaining manageable, supporting a favorable investment climate for equities [55]