解构美国系列第十六篇：特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战

Market Overview - The U.S. real estate market remains in a "weak supply and demand" state despite the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cuts of 175 basis points (bps) from September 2024 to August 2025, with new and existing home sales projected to decline in 2025 compared to 2024 levels[2][12]. - The mortgage interest rate remains high, averaging over 6%, significantly above the existing mortgage rate average of approximately 4.3%, limiting the effectiveness of the Fed's rate cuts on the housing market[3][45]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand is hindered by high home prices and affordability crises, leading to a decrease in home buying and mortgage demand, with 2025 new home sales expected to be below 2024 levels[2][12]. - The existing home market faces tight inventory due to the "lock-in effect," where homeowners with low fixed-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell, exacerbating supply shortages[21][45]. Future Projections - The anticipated "Trump housing reform" in 2026 aims to lower mortgage costs, activate supply markets, and further reduce interest rates, but significant legislative and judicial constraints may limit its effectiveness[4][50]. - A mortgage rate around 5% is estimated to be a critical threshold for initiating a recovery in the U.S. real estate cycle, with corresponding 10-year Treasury yields expected to be in the range of 3.2%-3.3%[5][50]. Risks and Challenges - The ongoing impact of tariffs on construction materials is expected to further increase housing costs, complicating supply issues and potentially reducing new housing starts by approximately 450,000 units over the next five years[39][40]. - The current housing supply shortage is estimated at around 2.8 million units, with projections indicating it may take up to 10 years to address this gap under current conditions[21][24].