债市策略思考：权益市场跨年行情对债市影响几何？

Core Insights - The equity market's year-end rally may have started, which, combined with the hot commodity market led by precious metals, could further impact the bond market's asset scarcity logic [1] - In a market environment with significant interest rate fluctuations, a buy-and-hold coupon strategy may offer a higher cost-performance ratio due to its relatively simple operational approach and neutral performance [1] Group 1: Equity Market Year-End Rally - From December 17 to 26, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight-day consecutive rise, indicating that the year-end rally may have begun [2] - Factors that contributed to the previous year-end rally in 2020, such as a liquidity-rich macro environment, increased preference for stable earnings, and a positive cycle of fund issuance and stock purchases, are also present in the current market [2][17] - Current favorable conditions for the equity market include a reinforced low-interest-rate environment, a clear leadership in technology stocks, and increased institutional pressure for passive holdings [20] Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The bond market has not performed outstandingly compared to other asset classes, with both absolute returns and risk-adjusted performance lacking [3][25] - The influx of funds into the bond market due to asset scarcity may face outflow pressure, negatively impacting bond market performance [3][25] Group 3: Buy-and-Hold Coupon Strategy - As of December 26, the average actual yield of pure bond funds was 1.44%, with 21.17% of funds exceeding a 2% yield [4][28] - A buy-and-hold strategy focusing on high-coupon credit bonds may provide better cost-performance, especially in a volatile interest rate environment [4][28] - For a 3-year AAA-rated bond, the actual yield could reach 1.65% when considering the benefits of duration shortening, ranking 43.50% among all bond funds [4][28]