固收专题：2026年债市展望：10年国债收益率或重回2%-3%波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the first expected difference in the bond market may be an unexpected rebound in inflation, which could cause bond yields to rise from the lower limit to the upper limit of the historical valuation range [5][6]. - As inflation rebounds, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate in the 2% - 3% range, with a central value of 2.5%, and 2% may form the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 2025 Bond Market Review - In 2025, the bond market mainly experienced valuation repairs, including short - end bond valuation repair at the beginning of the year, long - end and ultra - long - end bond valuation repair in July, and ultra - long - end bond valuation repair in November [3]. - Currently, the bond market valuation is basically at the lower boundary of the historical normal range. For example, the 2 - year - overnight spread is about 10bp (historical normal range: 10 - 140bp); the 10 - year Treasury - OMO spread is about 40bp (historical normal range: 40 - 70bp); the 30 - 10 - year spread is about 40bp (historical normal range: 40 - 80bp) [3]. - The reasons for bond valuation repair in 2025 include the suspension of central bank bond purchases and rising funding rates in early 2025, the improvement of economic expectations after July, the correction of inflation expectations due to anti - involution in July, and the failure to meet expectations of central bank bond purchases and the disappointment of interest rate cuts from October to December [3]. 2026 Bond Market Outlook - The current market's expectation for inflation is a stable low - level price, with the year - on - year PPI in the second half of 2026 expected to be around 0%, which is a linear extrapolation of the PPI fixed - base index's sideways movement from July to October 2025 [5]. - In December 2025, policies may restart supply - side structural reforms, with the central economic work conference involving supply contraction in many aspects to promote inflation rebound [5]. - In 2026, it may be similar to 2016, where the importance of GDP growth rate decreases and price rebound is the key. In 2016, the GDP target was lowered, but prices rebounded significantly, driving corporate profit improvement, stable stock market rise, and an upward trend in bond yields [6]. - The current bond market only anticipates the end of price decline without forming an inflation expectation, which may be the first expected difference in 2026. With the increasing importance of "dual - carbon" and "optimizing supply" with environmental protection as the starting point, prices are likely to rise trend - wise in 2026 [6]. - If the PPI month - on - month growth remains positive, the funding rate may also rise, leading to further increases in short - end and long - end bond yields [6].