“流动性笔记”系列之七：美联储扩表与QE时代的终结

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve initiated the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the end of the QE era rather than a restart[1] - The RMP is set at a scale of $40 billion for the first month, expected to remain high until April 2026, then potentially slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month[2] - RMP is a technical operation aimed at managing liquidity without altering the Fed's policy stance, primarily focusing on interest rate policy[3] Group 2: Differences Between RMP and QE - RMP and QE both lead to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet but differ fundamentally in their nature; RMP is for liquidity management while QE is for yield curve management[4] - RMP is market-neutral, whereas QE is market-non-neutral, affecting asset prices differently[5] - The Fed is unlikely to restart QE until interest rates approach zero, as lowering rates is a more effective demand stimulus before reaching that threshold[6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - As of December 24, 2025, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, with net issuance of U.S. debt declining[7] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 is projected at $1.77 trillion, lower than the $1.95 trillion from the previous year[8] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was 4.3% (annualized), exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending[9]