有色产业压力持续上升

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - 沪铜: The main contract of Shanghai copper increased in position and accelerated its upward movement, approaching the 100,000 mark during the session, but then declined with a reduction in positions at the end of the session. This week, copper prices fluctuated upwards with an increased intraday amplitude and intensified long - short competition. Due to the overseas Christmas holiday, there is a strong willingness for funds to take profits. High copper prices are suppressing downstream consumption, causing the basis and monthly spreads to weaken, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper has risen significantly. With overseas markets closed in the short term and significant domestic industrial pressure, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average when prices decline [6]. - 沪铝: This week, it showed a volatile trend, with the futures price reaching the high level in early December. There is a strong willingness for short - term long positions to take profits. Overseas markets are closed for Christmas. High aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and the industry is passively following. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game around the 22,400 mark in the short term [7]. - 沪镍: This week, nickel prices rebounded significantly with an increase in positions and broke through the operating center in the second half of the year. This was mainly due to the change in industrial supply - demand expectations, leading to an oversold rebound. On the industrial side, the expectation of policy disturbances in Indonesia has increased, driving up nickel prices. As the main nickel futures contract rose to the 130,000 mark, rebounding nearly 20,000 yuan/ton from the low level, there is a strong willingness for short - term long positions to take profits, and long - short competition has intensified [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - 铜: On December 25th, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic copper was 202,200 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons compared to the 22nd and 27,700 tons compared to the 18th. In the North China spot market for electrolytic copper, high copper prices have suppressed demand, and as the end of the year approaches, the pressure on holders has increased. The upstream is selling at a lower price to move goods, resulting in a continuous and significant decline in the spot premium in North China to an average discount of 600 yuan/ton, a new low in nearly three years. CSPT held its Q4 2025 general manager's office meeting in Shanghai on December 25th and decided not to set a reference figure for the spot copper concentrate processing fee for Q1 2026 [10]. - 铝: On December 25th, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic aluminum was 612,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared to the 22nd and 51,000 tons compared to the 18th [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - 铜: The report includes charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - 铝: The report contains charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum - to - London ratio, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [25][27][29] - 镍: The report has charts on nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][39][43]