瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20251226

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry [1][2] Core Viewpoints - A-shares and stock index futures rose this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chips. The external environment had a greater impact on A-shares due to a lack of macro data. Expectations of a Fed rate cut weakened the US dollar, which supported the stock market sentiment. The market trading activity rebounded significantly [6][12] - The bond market saw continued loose liquidity, with overnight weighted interest rates falling, supporting short-term bonds and guiding long-term interest rates down. Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with a focus on structural tools and a more cautious approach to overall easing [6] - Commodity indexes are expected to strengthen further as precious metals and crude oil remain relatively strong, despite weak economic data and deflationary pressures [6] - The US dollar is likely to remain weak in the short term due to expectations of a Fed rate cut, while the euro and yen may strengthen due to interest rate differentials [7][11] Summary by Section This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - Stocks: A-share major indexes rose collectively, with most gains exceeding 2%. Stock index futures also rose, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming. The external environment had a greater impact on the market due to a lack of macro data. The expectation of a Fed rate cut weakened the US dollar, which supported the stock market. The trading activity rebounded. Recommendation: Buy on dips [6][12] - Bonds: The bond market had loose liquidity, with short-term bonds supported and long-term interest rates guided down. Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with a focus on structural tools. Long positions have weak momentum, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate. Recommendation: Range trading [6] - Commodities: Economic data was weak, and deflationary pressures remained. However, commodity indexes are expected to strengthen as precious metals and crude oil remain strong. Recommendation: Wait and see [6] - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar is likely to remain weak due to expectations of a Fed rate cut, while the euro and yen may strengthen due to interest rate differentials. Recommendation: Cautious wait-and-see [6][7] Important News and Events - Domestic: The central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy meeting maintained a moderately loose tone, with a focus on structural tools. Hainan Free Trade Port's full-island customs closure operation started, expanding the "zero-tariff" commodity range. The government strengthened price regulation of internet platforms. Beijing optimized housing purchase restrictions [14] - International: Ukraine announced a "peace plan" draft, but the territorial issue remains unresolved. Trump wants the next Fed chair to cut rates, and the EU extended economic sanctions against Russia. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 30-year high [16] This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: The one-year loan prime rate remained unchanged at 3%. The year-on-year growth of total social electricity consumption in November slowed to 6.2% from 10.4% [17] - US: The initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than expected. The initial quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure was 3.5%, also higher than expected [17] Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Events - December 30, 2025: US October S&P/CS 20-city unadjusted home price index annual rate [76] - December 31, 2025: China December official manufacturing PMI; US weekly initial jobless claims [76] - January 2, 2026: France, Germany, Eurozone, UK, and US December manufacturing PMI final values [76]