Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-26 08:59Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, rapeseed oil futures rebounded from a low level, and the closing price of the 05 contract was 9,046 yuan/ton, up 302 yuan/ton from the previous week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 05 contract closing at 2,391 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][10]. - The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed has improved significantly, and the end - of - season inventory in the 2025/26 period has increased, which continues to restrain its market price. The high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has declined in the first 25 days, and the export data has improved, but there are doubts about the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 plan. In the domestic market, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a destocking mode, which supports its price. The possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies has boosted the domestic oil market. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure has increased [8]. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is abundant, and Brazil has a high expectation of a soybean bumper harvest. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global market. China is moving forward steadily towards its goal of purchasing 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans. In the domestic market, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term is still restricted. The supply is tight due to the shutdown of oil mills, and there are concerns about the possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure has increased. At the same time, the substitution advantage of soybean meal is good, which weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed oil - Market review: This week, rapeseed oil futures rebounded from a low level, and the closing price of the 05 contract was 9,046 yuan/ton, up 302 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Market outlook: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and the end - of - season inventory has increased. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decline in production and an improvement in exports, but there are doubts about Indonesia's B50 plan. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is destocking, which supports the price. The possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies has boosted the domestic oil market. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure [8]. Rapeseed meal - Market review: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 05 contract closing at 2,391 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Market outlook: During the US soybean export season, there is abundant supply, and Brazil has a high expectation of a soybean bumper harvest. The US faces competition from Brazilian soybeans. China is approaching its goal of purchasing US soybeans. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, resulting in tight supply. There are concerns about the possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures price trends - This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 192,235 lots, down 15,944 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures also fluctuated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 650,686 lots, up 52,198 lots from last week [15]. Top - 20 net open interest changes - This week, the top - 20 net open interest of rapeseed oil futures was - 27,854, and last week it was - 27,499, with little change in net short positions. The top - 20 net open interest of rapeseed meal futures was - 32,331, and last week it was - 74,459, with a significant reduction in net short positions [21]. Futures warehouse receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,456 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [25]. Spot prices and basis trends - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9,690 yuan/ton, significantly rebounding from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price of rapeseed oil and the spot price in Jiangsu was + 644 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was reported at 2,460 yuan/ton, slightly rebounding from last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract futures price of rapeseed meal was + 69 yuan/ton [34][40]. Futures inter - month spread changes - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was + 32 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 54 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [46]. Futures - to - spot ratio changes - The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.783, and the average spot price ratio was 3.94 [49]. Rapeseed oil - soybean oil and rapeseed oil - palm oil spread changes - The spread of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1,210 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed and fluctuated and widened this week. The spread of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil - palm oil was 478 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed and fluctuated this week [58]. Soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread changes - The spread of the 05 contract of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 399 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was reported at 670 yuan/ton [64]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 60,000 tons, the same as last week, compared with 819,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 50,000 tons. As of December 5, the estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January 2026, and February 2026 were 150,000 tons, 450,000 tons, and 420,000 tons respectively. As of December 25, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,254 yuan/ton. As of the 51st week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the same as last week, with an operating rate of 0%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 200 tons, a decrease of 70,590 tons compared with 70,790 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72%, and the import volume in the previous month was 0 tons [68][72][76][80]. Rapeseed oil - Supply: As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared with 384,000 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.74%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with 200,000 tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 15%, and an increase of 30,000 tons compared with 140,000 tons in the previous month [84]. - Demand: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was reported at 427,600 tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry were reported at 605.7 billion yuan. As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with 54,000 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% [88][92]. Rapeseed meal - Supply: As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China was 0 tons, the same as last week. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with 92,200 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96%, and a month - on - month decrease of 5,900 tons compared with 220,600 tons in the previous month [96][100]. - Demand: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was reported at 2.9779 million tons [104]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 26, this week, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 18.08%, a rebound of 1.59% from 16.49% last week, at a medium level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [108].