长江期货棉纺月报：现货偏紧，价格偏强-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The pressure of new cotton concentrated listing has subsided, and spot sales are relatively smooth. The market focuses on the reduction of next year's planting area and the expectation of stable consumption. With a stable spot market, market purchasing willingness is strong, and prices remain strong [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market mainly follows cotton prices. However, due to intense competition in the industrial chain and the decline in exports, it is expected that there will be greater pressure later. As cotton prices strengthen, yarn prices will also remain strong, but the pattern of compressed yarn profits is difficult to change [69]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Trend Review: Zhengzhou Cotton Fluctuated Strongly in December - In December, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly. The core reasons were the smooth spot sales this year, with the sales progress significantly higher than in previous years, and the large expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Yarn mainly followed the cotton trend, but spinning profits were compressed. The continued large - scale expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity exerted great pressure on the inland [8]. 3.2. Supply - Side Analysis: New - Season Global Supply - Demand Balance 3.2.1. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's December global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the 2024/25 season was basically stable; the adjustment in the 2025/26 season was also limited, with production, consumption, and imports and exports all reduced by 60,000 tons, and the final ending inventory increased by 10,000 tons. In the 2025/26 season, harvesting in most production areas was basically completed, and some started planting for the 2026/27 season. Therefore, the production adjustment shrank significantly, and consumption and import - export trade also declined slightly [14]. 3.2.2. US Cotton - In 2025/26, the US planting area was 56.427 million mu, and the harvested area was 44.729 million mu, with the abandonment rate remaining unchanged at 20.7%. The expected yield per unit was 69.4 kg/mu, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the expected production was adjusted up to 3.106 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The expected consumption was 348,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons, a decrease of 5.9%; the expected export volume was flat month - on - month. Based on this, the ending inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 980,000 tons [15]. 3.2.3. US Cotton Contracted Exports and Shipments - As of December 11, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - contracted to export 1.445 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, reaching 54.39% of the annual expected export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 605,000 tons of cotton, with a shipment rate of 41.88%. Among them, the contracted volume of upland cotton was 1.402 million tons, and 577,000 tons were shipped, with a shipment rate of 41.16%. The contracted volume of Pima cotton was 42,000 tons, and 28,000 tons were shipped, with a shipment rate of 65.85%. China had cumulatively contracted to import 64,000 tons of US cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 4.42% of the contracted US cotton volume; and had cumulatively shipped 23,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 3.77% of the total US cotton shipments and 35.68% of China's contracted volume [21]. 3.2.4. India - According to the CAI's November supply - demand balance sheet, in the 2025/26 season, the expected production was 5.262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons; the expected import was 850,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons. On the demand side, the expected consumption was 5.015 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 85,000 tons; the expected export was 306,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons. Based on this, India's ending cotton inventory increased to 1.821 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons [24]. 3.2.5. Brazil - In 2025, Brazil's cotton planting area was expected to be adjusted up to 2.17 million hectares (32.55 million mu), a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%; the expected yield per unit was adjusted up to 130.5 kg/mu, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8%; so the expected total production was adjusted up to 4.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. In 2026, Brazil's cotton planting area was expected to be 2.05 million hectares (30.75 million mu), a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the expected yield per unit was 124.4 kg/mu, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; so the expected total production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%, at the second - highest level in the past five years [25]. 3.2.6. China - In the 2025/26 season, in terms of total supply, the beginning inventory remained stable at 6.16 million tons. In terms of production, although the yield per unit in southern Xinjiang decreased locally, the total production still increased due to the increase in area, and the national total production was adjusted up by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. In terms of imports, it was expected to remain unchanged at 1.2 million tons. According to the above situation, the annual total supply was adjusted up by 260,000 tons to 15.04 million tons. In terms of total demand, new orders from textile enterprises decreased slightly in November, but the market was "not in a slack season", the overall sales - to - production ratio and finished - product inventory remained stable, the operating rate remained at a relatively high level and was resilient, the cumulative cotton consumption in the new season increased year - on - year, and the annual textile cotton consumption was expected to be adjusted up by 130,000 tons to 8.21 million tons. The total demand increased by 130,000 tons to 8.58 million tons [30]. 3.2.7. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of November, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises showed a steady - to - increasing trend. As of the end of November, the in - stock cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. As of the end of November 2025, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 59.82%, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of 0.21%. As of December 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory was 6.3329 million tons, an increase of 44,500 tons year - on - year and an increase of 709,700 tons month - on - month [33]. 3.2.8. Imports of Cotton and Yarn in November - In November 2025, China's cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (from 90,000 tons), an increase of 34.4%; a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (from 110,000 tons), an increase of 9.4%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0%. From September to November 2025 (2025/26 season), the cumulative cotton import volume was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8%. In November 2025, China's yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons, an increase of about 25%, and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 7.14%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative yarn import volume was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [36]. 3.2.9. Supply - Side Summary - According to the latest USDA report, the global supply - demand remained in a balanced state, with overall production and consumption at an absolute high level and moderate inventory. The contradiction was not prominent. Domestically, although production increased, due to the tight industrial and commercial carry - over inventory and smooth sales, the overall inventory did not increase significantly year - on - year. Globally, attention should be paid to the reduction of planting areas in the US, Brazil, and China next year. Domestically, attention should be paid to the situation of structural supply tightness after the growth of Xinjiang's yarn production capacity and the adjustment of Xinjiang's cotton planting policy next year [38]. 3.3. Demand - Side Analysis: Strong Resilience in Downstream Demand 3.3.1. Strong Domestic Demand - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.17%. From January to November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 45.6067 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In November, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [43]. 3.3.2. Weakening External Demand Exports - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.22%. Among them, textile exports were 12.276 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.03% and a month - on - month increase of 9.05%; clothing exports were 11.594 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.86% and a month - on - month increase of 5.36%. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 267.795 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. Among them, textile exports were 130.009 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; clothing exports were 137.787 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [46]. 3.3.3. Textile Industry Inventory - In October, the inventory of the textile industry was 4.064 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year increase of 3.8 billion yuan; the finished - product inventory of the textile industry was 2.18 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 600 million yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1.6 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing was 1.878 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 9 billion yuan; the finished - product inventory of textile and clothing was 1.008 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 billion yuan [48]. 3.3.4. US Clothing and Apparel Retail Sales in September 2025 - In September 2025, the retail sales of clothing and apparel accessories in the US (seasonally adjusted) were 27.043 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.65% (the same period last year was downward - adjusted to 25.356 billion US dollars) and a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% (the previous month was upward - adjusted to 27.24 billion US dollars). In August 2025, the inventory of clothing and apparel accessory retailers in the US (seasonally adjusted) was 58.114 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35% (the same period last year was downward - adjusted to 58.321 billion US dollars) and a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% (the previous month was downward - adjusted to 58.161 billion US dollars). In August 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of clothing and apparel accessory retailers in the US (seasonally adjusted) was 2.13, a year - on - year decrease of 0.21 and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 [55]. 3.3.5. Load Changes - As of November 21, the load index of pure - cotton yarn mills was 64.3, a decrease of 0.14 from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn was 48.3, the same as the previous week; the load of pure - polyester yarn was 59, the same as the previous week. The load of yarn and grey cloth showed signs of weakening [57]. 3.3.6. Industrial Chain Inventory - In terms of inventory, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.9 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous week; the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 28.26 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous week; the inventory of all - cotton grey cloth was 31.48 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous week. As it entered the consumption slack season, inventory began to accumulate [61]. 3.3.7. Demand - Side Summary - In terms of downstream demand, domestic demand was very stable and resilient. In terms of external demand exports, it began to weaken in the second half of the year. However, judging from the US consumption data, the recent data was acceptable, but there was a long delay, and further observation was needed. In the past two years, although cotton prices were sluggish, global consumption increased steadily, offsetting most of the production growth [66].