苹果月报：高位回落，下方仍有一定支撑-20251228

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple futures market has dropped from its high level, and the later market drive will gradually shift to the demand side. The export volume is expected to increase in Q1 2026, and some traders will start stocking up for the Spring Festival at the end of December, which will increase the shipping volume. Supported by the decline in the high - quality fruit rate and production, there is still some support below the apple futures market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range, and the operation suggestion is to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [2][41] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - In December, the main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over, and the position was transferred to AP2605, showing a pattern of high - level decline. The fulfillment of the production reduction expectation and the apple consumption off - season led to a weak performance of the market [6] II. Apple Fundamental Analysis 1. Cold storage inventory is at a historically low level - As of December 25, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 7.021 billion kilograms, 857.8 million kilograms lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in the same period in the past seven years. Shandong's cold storage inventory was about 2.655 billion kilograms, Shaanxi's was about 1.9664 billion kilograms, and non - main producing areas' was about 2.3996 billion kilograms. Due to the decline in production and quality, the new - season apple storage volume decreased significantly, and there were quality problems such as water rot. It is expected that the supply of high - quality apples will be tight, and the price may be stable or rising, while the price of general - quality apples may decline [10] 2. The festival effect boosts demand, which has slightly improved - As of December 25, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 53.31%, 6.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From December 18 - 24, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.81 percentage points, the single - week shipment volume increased by 0.27 percentage points compared with the previous week, and the de - stocking rate was 4.58%. Affected by festivals, the shipping volume in Shandong increased, mainly low - quality apples; Shaanxi also traded low - price apples, and some large traders were preparing for the Spring Festival. The shipment in Gansu was okay. With the end of the off - cold - storage apple sales, the cold - storage trading volume increased. It is expected that some traders will start stocking up for the Spring Festival at the end of December, and the shipping volume may increase [16] 3. The import volume of fresh apples decreased month - on - month in November - In November 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 250,000 kilograms, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.37 million kilograms, a year - on - year increase of 19.71%. Due to the small proportion of imports in the national production and sufficient fruit supply, it is expected that the import scale will remain at the current level [21] 4. Fresh apples enter the export peak season, and the export volume rebounds - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121.6 million kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The festival effect significantly boosted the export volume. It is expected that the export volume in Q1 2026 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [24][25] 5. The listing of citrus fruits weakens apple demand - Citrus is a major winter fruit, and its listing period is from November to March of the next year. Due to the high yield and low price of citrus, it competes strongly with apples around the Spring Festival. In December, the fruit price increased month - on - month, at the highest level in the past five years. The listing of citrus fruits will have a certain impact on the downstream demand for apples [28][32] 6. Apple consumption seasonality analysis - The months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by the completion of inventory clearance, the reduction of seasonal fruits, and the double - festival stocking. November and December are affected by the festival effect and the effective supply of new fruits. The months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits and the decline in inventory apple quality; August is affected by the impact of seasonal fruits, the listing of early - maturing apples, and the decline in inventory apple quality; October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples and the listing of substitute fruits [34][35] 7. The origin price runs stably, and the transaction of high - quality goods is not prosperous - As of December 26, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of 65 - 70 apples from cold - storage farmers was 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per 500 grams, and that of 75 apples from merchants was about 3.0 yuan per 500 grams. The price difference between different apple sources has expanded, and the price difference between large and small fruits may further expand during the cold - storage apple sales period. The long - term futures contracts may remain strong [38] III. Market Outlook - Supply side: As of December 25, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 7.021 billion kilograms, at a historically low level. Demand side: Affected by festivals, the shipping volume in some areas increased, and large traders in Shaanxi were preparing for the Spring Festival. The market drive will gradually shift to the demand side. The export is expected to increase, and some traders will start stocking up for the Spring Festival at the end of December. Supported by the decline in high - quality fruit rate and production, there is support below the apple futures market, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range [40][41]