供应端收紧预期增强，盘面震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The pulp futures rally may not be over yet. Given the continued increase in the outer - market quotes providing strong cost support and the extended pre - holiday restocking period due to the slightly delayed Spring Festival in 2026, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish approach, while attention should be paid to the digestion of port inventories [2][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review In December, the main contract of pulp futures completed the roll - over, with positions transferred to the SP2605 contract, and the market rebounded significantly. The expected tightening of coniferous pulp supply due to major pulp mills shutting down or reducing production drove market sentiment stronger [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 November Import Volume Increased Month - on - Month, but Import Expectations for Next Year are Tightening In November 2025, China imported 3246000 tons of pulp, with an import value of $1.8734 billion and an average unit price of $577.14 per ton. From January to November, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 5.8% and - 1.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. In November, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 725200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.93% and a year - on - year increase of 10.12%; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1764600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.85% and a year - on - year increase of 29.68%. However, due to major pulp mills shutting down or reducing production, the supply of coniferous pulp is expected to tighten significantly next year, and the import volume may decline [12][14]. 2.2 European Port Inventories Declined, and Overseas Demand May Recover Slowly In October 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 10.22% month - on - month and 6.47% compared with October 2024. European wood pulp port inventories have been declining since September, indicating that the off - season for papermaking demand in Europe and the United States has passed. Overseas wood pulp demand may show a slow recovery. Against the background of the merger wave in the European papermaking industry, the outer - market quotes of pulp are firm [18]. 2.3 Production Cuts and Inventory Decline Lead to Firm Outer - Market Quotes Since August, the outer - market price of imported broad - leaf pulp has rebounded from a low of $490 per ton in July, with a cumulative increase of $60 per ton. The outer - market quotes of wood pulp are firm, and the high import cost provides strong support for domestic prices [21]. 2.4 Cost Increase Further Squeezes the Profits of Downstream Base Paper Enterprises The prices of imported coniferous and broad - leaf pulp are rising, increasing the production costs of downstream paper enterprises. However, the prices of downstream base paper are difficult to increase, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the purchasing willingness for high - priced raw materials. The operating rates of different paper types are diverging, and overall, downstream paper mills are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with low purchasing enthusiasm [27]. 2.5 Domestic Major Port Inventories Declined Month - on - Month but Remain at a High Level As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of pulp in major ports decreased by 2.47% week - on - week, with the decline rate expanding by 0.21 percentage points. However, the overall inventory is still at a relatively high historical level. Due to the slightly delayed Spring Festival in 2026, the pre - holiday restocking period is extended, and domestic demand may show a mild recovery [31]. 3. Future Outlook On the supply side, in November 2025, China's pulp import volume and value showed certain changes compared with the same period last year. Major pulp mills shutting down or reducing production will lead to a significant tightening of coniferous pulp supply next year. On the demand side, downstream paper enterprises' operating rates are diverging, and high costs are squeezing corporate profits and suppressing purchasing willingness. Considering the cost support and the extended restocking period, domestic demand may recover mildly, and the pulp futures rally may continue [32][33].