熊市尚未结束，郑糖反弹空间有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the main sugar production and supply in Q1 2026 will come from the Northern Hemisphere. Except for a certain production delay in Thailand, the sugar production in countries like India and China is optimistic, exerting significant downward pressure on international sugar prices. Although the expectation of a production cut in Brazil in the 2026/27 season has increased, it can only support the price at the bottom and is unlikely to drive the price up [2][20]. - Domestically, sugar prices dropped rapidly under the pressure of the large - scale listing of new sugar but rebounded quickly when approaching the 5,000 - yuan/ton mark, indicating a possible short - term bottom. However, in the medium term, the bear market is not over, and prices may hit the bottom again. Attention should be paid to the spot market trend after the Spring Festival stocking period ends. Zhengzhou sugar futures may enter a low - level oscillation pattern [2][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In December, Zhengzhou sugar futures first declined and then rebounded. Affected by the large - scale listing of domestic new sugar and higher - than - expected imports, the price dropped to a minimum of 5,072 yuan/ton and then recovered to around 5,300 yuan/ton as short - sellers took profits [5]. - International sugar prices oscillated at a low level in December. The optimistic production outlook of major sugar - producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere pressured the price, with the lowest reaching 14.38 cents/pound. However, some potential long - term positive factors limited the downside, and the price rebounded to above 15 cents/pound [5]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - Brazil: Its production is nearly finished, and the sugar - making ratio continues to decline. As of December 1, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central and southern regions was 39.904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.13%. The bi - weekly sugar - making ratio dropped to 35.52%. If international sugar prices remain low, the sugar - making ratio in the new season may be much lower than this year [7]. - India: The sugar production progress in the 2025/26 season is fast. As of December 15, 2025, the national sugar production reached 7.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 28%. However, sugar mills are facing difficulties as the domestic sugar ex - factory price is far below the production cost, and there is a high call for raising the Minimum Support Price, which may affect next year's production willingness [10]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - Sugar Cane Crushing: In the 2025/26 season, 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a designed sugar - cane crushing capacity of 582,500 tons per day. The probability of sugar production in Guangxi reaching over 6.9 million tons is high. In Yunnan, 35 sugar mills have started production, an increase of 5 compared to the same period last year, with a projected crushing capacity of 123,200 tons per day [13]. - Imports: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. The import of syrups and pre - mixed powders tightened significantly. After the tightening of the syrup import policy, the import of Thai syrups decreased notably. Attention should be paid to whether imports from other countries will increase [17]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Recommendations - Conclusion: The international sugar price is under pressure, and the Brazilian production cut can only support the bottom. Domestically, the bear market is not over, and prices may hit the bottom again. Zhengzhou sugar futures may oscillate at a low level [20]. - Operational Recommendations: Focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][21]