国信期货软商品月报：郑棉上行消化利多，关注消费反应-20251228

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic cotton market, short - term fundamentals have limited support. The price increase is driven by the potential long - term benefit of reduced domestic cotton planting area. But the long - term benefit has been factored into the price, and the rapid rise in upstream cotton prices will increase downstream pressure [1][28][29]. - In the international market, the adjustment in the USDA monthly report is limited. U.S. cotton exports are generally weak, but the widening price difference between Chinese and U.S. cotton has increased Chinese purchases, boosting U.S. cotton exports. Indian cotton prices are supported by concerns about a shortage of high - grade cotton. Overall, international cotton prices lack upward momentum but have limited downside in the short term [1][29]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a bearish trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton [2][30]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In December, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated slightly before rising, with a gain of over 1,000 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of a significant reduction in new - year cotton planting area and continuous capital inflow [3]. - In December, the international cotton market oscillated at a low level. After the positive news of the Fed's interest rate cut was realized, the USDA report was bearish, and U.S. cotton exports were weak. However, short - covering at low prices and a significant increase in U.S. cotton export data at the beginning of December led to a price rebound [3]. 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 New - year Supply Tightening Expectations - There are strong expectations of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and output in 2026. It is rumored that the target planting area for the 2026/27 Xinjiang cotton target price policy will be about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu (over 10%) from the previous year. Some cotton - growing areas in southern Xinjiang are prohibited from winter and spring irrigation, increasing uncertainty [5]. - In 2026, cotton planting enthusiasm has been affected. The actual subsidy for the 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton target price may not meet farmers' expectations, which will lead to a reduction in the sown area in 2026. As of December 14, 2025, the cumulative public inspection volume of lint cotton in the 2025/26 season reached 5.3736 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.76%. Due to the increase in production, farmers' expected subsidy income may decline, and some cotton - planting entities may face losses [6]. 2.2 Narrowing Export Decline - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports showed a narrowing decline. Textile exports increased year - on - year, and the decline in clothing exports eased. The total export of textile and clothing in November was $23.87 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%, 7 percentage points narrower than in October. Clothing exports were $11.59 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%, with the decline narrowing by 5 percentage points. Textile exports were $12.28 billion, a 1% year - on - year increase [8]. - After the China - U.S. summit in November 2025, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, and China adjusted counter - tariffs. The market is optimistic about cotton product export orders to the U.S. and the EU in December 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [9]. 2.3 Short - term Weakening of Downstream and Limited Demand Support - As of December 19, the operating rate of textile enterprises was 47.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 percentage points, and that of weaving enterprises was 48.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 percentage points. The operating rates of both types of enterprises have declined, providing limited support for raw materials [12]. - The downstream finished - product inventory has increased, especially in weaving enterprises. As of December 19, the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 29 days, up 1 day from late November, and the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises was 34.7 days, up 2.2 days from late November. The inventories of both are at relatively high levels in the past five years [15]. 2.4 Positive Policies and Some Support for Long - term Consumption - The Politburo meeting on December 8, 2025, proposed to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy. In 2025, China significantly increased the fiscal deficit rate and the issuance of special bonds, expanding fiscal expenditure and promoting economic stability [17]. - In November 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 1359.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. With policy support, consumption in 2026 may have some support [19]. 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Limited Adjustment and Slight Increase in Global Inventory - The USDA's December cotton supply - demand report showed limited changes compared with November. Global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume were slightly adjusted, and the global ending inventory increased slightly by more than 40,000 bales. The reduction in production in Francophone African countries was offset by an increase in U.S. production. Consumption decreased in Brazil, the U.S., and some Central American countries, and trade volume decreased by over 250,000 bales [22]. 3.2 Overall Weak U.S. Cotton Exports with a Stronger Start in December - As of December 2025, the total signed sales volume of U.S. upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 444,700 tons, accounting for 55% of the annual forecast export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 605,100 tons, accounting for 42% of the total signed volume [26]. - U.S. cotton exports were weak in November but strengthened in early December. In the week ending December 11, the net increase in U.S. cotton export sales was 304,700 bales, a 99% increase from the previous week and a 95% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The increase was mainly due to increased Chinese purchases [26].