债市晴雨表:基金久期持平
CMS·2025-12-28 03:33
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the bond market from multiple aspects, including bond market sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation, and presents the changes in various indicators last week [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment - Last week, the bond market sentiment index was 112.3, down 0.3 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 47.7%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Institutional Duration - As of last Friday, the fund duration was 1.66 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 3.28 years, down 0.08 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 7.57 years, up 0.15 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio - Last week, the balance of pledged repurchase was 13.0 trillion yuan, up 0.4 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 5.0 trillion yuan, up 0.2 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Secondary Trading - In terms of turnover rate last week, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y treasury bonds was 0.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y CDB bonds was 11.3%, down 6.1 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 0.31%, up 0.06 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.5 Allocation Power - In terms of bond market allocation power, the newly issued share of bond funds last week was 11.2 billion yuan, up 2.4 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 0.72%, down 0.07 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 98.0, down 0.4 from the previous value. The 6M bill transfer discount rate - 6M certificate of deposit rose 3.0bp to - 68.8bp, reflecting an increase in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the bond allocation index of rural commercial banks was - 27.1%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of insurance companies was 2.2%, down 52.7 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of money market funds was - 45.5%, down 91.6 percentage points from the previous value; the allocation index of insurance second - tier perpetual bonds was - 17.2%, down 8.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Primary Subscription - Last week, the full - field multiple of treasury bonds fell 0.1 times to 2.7 times; the full - field multiple of local bonds fell 4.1 times to 15.2 times; the full - field multiple of CDB bonds was nan times [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year CDB and treasury bonds narrowed 0.8bp to 14.1bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds narrowed 2.8bp to 38.9bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed 0.2bp to - 7.5bp; the spread between 10 - year local and treasury bonds was 20.8bp, the same as the previous value [2].