申万宏源交运一周天地汇：油散进入淡季布局窗口，船舶板块有望迎来开门红重点关注ST松发

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping sector, particularly highlighting potential opportunities in ST Songfa, China Shipbuilding, and China Power [5]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is expected to see a strong start in 2026, driven by improved new ship orders and the launch of shipping industry index funds. The report anticipates a rebound in freight rates post the Christmas season, with a potential early trading opportunity for the oil and bulk shipping sectors ahead of the Spring Festival [5]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the logistics and transportation sectors, with specific attention to the performance of various sub-sectors, including air transport and express delivery, which are poised for significant growth due to supply constraints and increasing demand [5][6]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - New ship orders have improved since October, and the shipping industry index fund launch is expected to boost the sector in 2026. The report recommends focusing on ST Songfa, China Shipbuilding, and China Power [5]. - The report notes that the overall oil and bulk freight rates exceeded expectations in Q4, with specific recommendations for China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [5]. Air Transport - The report highlights the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which are expected to constrain supply. However, the rising passenger volume and the allocation of more capacity to international routes are anticipated to enhance airline profitability [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price recovery leading to profit restoration, continued competitive pressure in certain regions, and potential mergers and acquisitions for supply-side optimization. Recommended companies include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and ZTO Express [5]. Road and Rail Transport - The report indicates that railway freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with steady growth expected. Data from the Ministry of Transport shows a slight decrease in railway freight but an increase in highway truck traffic [5]. Market Performance - The transportation index rose by 1.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.95%. The raw material supply chain services sector saw the highest increase at 6.57%, while the air transport sector experienced a decline of 0.75% [6].