有色金属大宗金属周报（2025/12/22-2025/12/26）：供给偏紧逻辑持续演绎，铜价强势突破创历史新高-20251228

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply tightness logic continues to unfold, with copper prices breaking through historical highs. This week, copper prices increased significantly, with London copper rising by 3.22%, Shanghai copper by 5.95%, and New York copper by 6.71%. London copper surpassed $12,000 per ton, while Shanghai copper exceeded ¥100,000 per ton. Supply-side concerns are heightened due to potential strikes at Chilean copper mines, which could exacerbate the tight supply situation. The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% and the non-ferrous sector increasing by 6.43%, outperforming the index by 4.54 percentage points. Lithium, copper, and tungsten sectors showed the highest gains, while rare earths and tin lagged behind [11][12] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices rose by 3.22%, Shanghai copper by 5.95%, and New York copper by 6.71%. London copper inventory decreased by 2.10%, while Shanghai inventory increased by 16.59%. The smelting fee was reported at -$44.9 per ton, indicating a loss in copper smelting profits [26][23] 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.48%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 1.57%. Inventory levels for both London and Shanghai aluminum saw slight increases. The price of alumina fell by 2.36%, while aluminum smelting profits rose by 5.70% to ¥6,402 per ton [37][37] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - London lead prices increased by 0.63%, and Shanghai lead prices rose by 3.00%. London zinc prices rose by 0.75%, while Shanghai zinc prices increased by 0.52%. Smelting processing fees decreased by 6.25% to ¥1,500 per ton, with mining profits rising to ¥10,004 per ton [51][51] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - London tin prices fell by 1.26%, while Shanghai tin prices decreased by 0.26%. Conversely, London nickel prices rose by 5.82%, and Shanghai nickel prices increased by 9.33%. Nickel iron prices rose by 2.23%, with domestic nickel iron enterprises reporting profits of ¥5,955 per ton [64][64] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium spodumene rising by 13.05% to $1,490 per ton, and lithium carbonate increasing by 14.59% to ¥111,900 per ton. However, the smelting profit margins for lithium were negative [80][80] 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices also increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.20% to $24.50 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices increasing by 5.45% to ¥445,000 per ton. The profit margins for domestic smelting plants rose significantly [93][93]