牧业跟踪点评：商务部对欧盟进口乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，有望提振国产原奶替代需求

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU, which is expected to boost domestic raw milk demand [2][3] - The preliminary ruling indicates that the anti-subsidy tax rates for sampled companies range from 21.9% to 42.7%, with the overall import volume of subsidized products from the EU accounting for 23.61% to 34.63% of China's total dairy imports from 2020 to Q1 2024 [3][4] - The raw milk price cycle is currently at the bottom, with cash loss pressures in the dairy industry expected to continue into 2025, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 [3][6] - The supply of dairy cows has shown signs of reversal, with the proportion of breeding cows reaching historical highs, indicating that the elimination of milking cows will outpace replenishment, leading to a supply gap [6] - The meat and milk cycle is expected to resonate positively, with beef prices having reversed in 2025 and anticipated supply gaps continuing to widen into 2026 [3][15] Summary by Sections Section: Anti-subsidy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy imports starting December 23, 2025, due to evidence of subsidies causing substantial harm to domestic industries [2][4] Section: Raw Milk Market - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was approximately 3.0 CNY/kg by the end of December 2025, continuing a downward trend [6] - The domestic dairy industry is accelerating the development of deep processing capacities, with projects expected to enter production between late 2025 and 2026, which will further enhance raw milk demand [6][11] Section: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on dairy farming stocks, as improvements in raw milk prices will benefit core profitability, and the upward cycle in beef prices is expected to enhance profits from cow elimination and calf sales [3][17] - Key stocks highlighted include Yurun Dairy and Modern Dairy, which are expected to benefit from the synergy between meat and milk cycles [17]