成本端支撑增加，走势震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The production profit of polyolefins is poor, but there is support at the cost - end. The capacity production is strong, with the operating rate higher than last year and the output significantly exceeding that of last year, leading to great pressure on the supply side. The downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level overall, and the off - peak season atmosphere is strong, resulting in weak demand. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Technically, they rebound after reaching the bottom. In the short term, polyolefins may fluctuate mainly. For futures and options strategies, for futures on a single - side basis, reduce or exit short positions; for options, sell straddle options [9]. - For PP, it is recommended to short. As of December 25, the price is in a downward trend at 6266. The logic is that the new PP capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. It is also recommended to reduce or exit short positions [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview - Inventory: According to Longzhong Information, the expected inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises this week is about 440,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. The expected inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises is about 510,000 tons, which is lower than the current period, and the polypropylene market continues to decline [8]. - Supply: According to Longzhong Information, this week, plants including Yangzi Petrochemical, Sino - Korean Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical are planned to restart, and with no new planned maintenance plants, the expected total output for the next period is 704,900 tons, an increase of 32,700 tons compared to the current total output. The estimated total output of Chinese polypropylene is 795,000 tons, showing a narrow increase this week and a change from a downward to an upward trend [8]. - Demand: According to Longzhong Information, this week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly decreased, and export orders have shown weak growth. After the e - commerce activities ended, the supermarket channel has entered the de - stocking stage. The operating rate of PP downstream is on a downward trend [8]. - Industrial Chain Profit: The losses of oil - based PE and PP production profits have widened. The production of ethylene - based PE and propylene - based PP are in a state of loss, and the losses of PDH - based PP production have also widened. There is support at the cost - end [8]. 3.2 Production Profit - PE Production Profit: The losses of LLDPE oil - based and ethylene - based production profits are shown in relevant charts, indicating a poor profit situation [32][35]. - PP Production Profit: The losses of PP oil - based, propylene - based, PDH - based, and coal - based production profits are shown in relevant charts, with an overall poor profit situation [37][39][42]. - PE/PP Import and Export Profit: The import and export profit situations of LLDPE and PP are shown in relevant charts, with varying degrees of losses [44][46][48]. 3.3 Inventory - PE Inventory: Charts show the inventory of PE production enterprises, traders, social inventory, and coal - based inventory, with the overall expected inventory decline [52][55]. - PP Inventory: Charts show the inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, port inventory, and coal - based inventory, with the inventory of production enterprises expected to decline [58][60]. 3.4 Supply Side - PE Output: The weekly output, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume of PE are shown in relevant charts. The plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new capacity is 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [68][70][89]. - PP Output: The weekly output, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume of PP are shown in relevant charts. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP realized capacity is about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [75][77][95]. - PE and PP Imports: Charts show the import volumes of PE and PP [83]. 3.5 Demand Side - PE/PP Downstream Operating Rate: Charts show the operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries, with the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries slightly decreasing and the operating rate of PP downstream on a downward trend [105]. - PE Downstream Operating Rate: Charts show the operating rates of agricultural film, packaging film, hollow products, and PE pipes, with a general decline [109]. - PP Downstream Operating Rate: Charts show the operating rates of plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and PP pipes, with a downward trend [118][120]. - PE/PP Exports: Charts show the export volumes of PE and PP [123]. - Plastic Products: Charts show the production volume of plastic products, the inventory of the rubber and plastic products industry, the year - on - year monthly production of automobiles and household appliances, the export volume of household appliances, the domestic automobile production, and China's automobile exports [127][128][133].