年底行情激化，白银价格屡创新高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the silver price was very strong, continuously hitting new historical highs. The macro - economic data further increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the change of the Fed chairman may accelerate the rate - cut process. In terms of commodity attributes, the development of photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles, and AI data centers provides rigid support for silver demand. The global silver market has a supply shortage, and the domestic inventory is at a low level, leading to a record - high spread between domestic and foreign silver futures. With the implementation of the silver export license system in 2026, the flow of domestic silver to overseas derivative markets will be restricted. The continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the low global deliverable inventory also support the silver price. Therefore, the medium - and long - term trend of silver is expected to remain strong [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - Silver Trend: Last week, London silver and Shanghai silver both hit new highs. London silver reached 79.405 and closed at 79.329, with a weekly increase of 18.3% and an annual cumulative increase of 175%. Shanghai silver's main contract reached 19215 and closed at 19204 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 19.1% and an annual cumulative increase of 145% [8]. - US Economy: The US GDP in the third quarter grew by 4.3%, the fastest in two years, driven by strong consumer spending and a significant rebound in exports. However, consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021 [8]. - Inflation: The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest since early 2021, which strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - Interest Rate: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond decreased by 2 basis points last week, which increased the attractiveness of non - interest - bearing assets [8]. - Supply and Demand: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply gap of over 100 million ounces, and it has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years. As of December 26, 2025, the inventory of the world's largest silver ETF - SLV increased by 2% week - on - week. The LBMA inventory has dropped to a historical low, and the available inventory is tight [8]. - Spread: The spread between domestic and foreign silver futures reached a historical high of 1396 yuan last week, and the London spot gold - silver ratio dropped to 57.14, the lowest in more than 10 years [8]. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold long positions in AG2602 cautiously against the 5 - day moving average and set stop - profit levels [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report provides the price trend charts of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver [12][16]. 3.3 US Economy - The report presents the trend charts of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm employment, and unemployment rate [24][25]. 3.4 Inflation - The report shows the trend charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE [31]. 3.5 Interest Rate - The report provides the trend charts of US Treasury bond yields (short - term, medium - and long - term) and real interest rates [37][41]. 3.6 Fundamentals - The report shows the trend charts of silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory [46][49][53]. 3.7 Dollar Index and Exchange Rate - The report presents the trend charts of the dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, British pound against the US dollar, US dollar against the Canadian dollar, euro against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Japanese yen [59][62][67][69]. 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Spread - The report shows the trend charts of domestic and foreign silver futures and their spread [76]. 3.9 Silver Basis - The report presents the trend charts of domestic and foreign silver basis [86]. 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - The report shows the trend charts of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX [89].