GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-12-28 08:15Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - The international passenger turnover for October and November 2025 is expected to grow by 12.9% and 14.3% year-on-year compared to the same months in 2019, indicating a recovery in demand [1][2] - The average economy class ticket price for the New Year holiday in 2026 is projected to be 597 RMB, reflecting a 1.1% decrease from 2024 and a 6.7% increase from 2025 [1][2] - The logistics sector is benefiting from explosive growth in overseas e-commerce, with TikTok Shop's GMV in Southeast Asia increasing by 2.7 times during the "12.12" promotion [1][3] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 1.37%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.51 percentage points [1][19] - The top three performing sub-sectors were shipping, public transport, and logistics, with increases of 4.70%, 4.65%, and 1.96% respectively [1][19] Air Travel - From January to November 2025, civil aviation passenger turnover reached 12,865.80 billion person-kilometers, a 19.6% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [2][12] - Domestic routes saw a 25.6% increase, while international routes grew by 3.6% [2][12] - The aviation sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [2][12] Shipping and Ports - The oil and dry bulk freight rates are experiencing a decline, with VLCC rates significantly dropping due to seasonal factors and lower-than-expected January loading volumes [3][13] - The dry bulk shipping index continues to fall, with a focus on the impact of new iron ore production and geopolitical developments [3][14] - The LNG transportation market is anticipated to follow a different cycle compared to larger vessels, with new projects in hydrogen production [3][16] Logistics - The logistics sector is focusing on two investment themes: overseas expansion driven by e-commerce growth and internal competition management amid slowing industry growth [3][17] - The express delivery volume showed a modest increase of 1.6% year-on-year in December, indicating a competitive landscape where leading companies are expected to gain market share [3][17]